As voting begins in Scotland, most the latest polls converge around a very narrow victory for No, by 52% to 48%. Those that don’t show this result have either 49% or 47% for Yes. So, it’s either all pollsters are right, or all will fall together. Here is the case for Yes, and why pollsters have a harder job this time.
GBP/USD is now moving back up above 1.63, recovering from the lows that it reached after the dollar-rally that was inspired by the FOMC. The market was keen on buying dollars. Most currencies suffered more than sterling.
We can expect the Scottish referendum news to dominate every single move of the pound from this moment on, with cable even ignoring important retail sales data from the UK and significant US figures.
Polls open at 6:00 GMT and close at 21:00. At the moment, there are no confirmed television exit polls, but data will certainly flow out of Edinburgh. Real results are expected to begin flowing from 1:00 GMT on Friday.
Low liquidity + critical news = huge moves.
See the full Scottish timetable for forex traders
And here is the chart showing the latest moves on IndyRef day:
More on the big event:
- Scotland Referendum: Timetable for forex traders
- The case for Yes – 5 reasons why the polls could possible be totally wrong on Scotland
- Scotland Referendum: what the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
- GBP/USD could retest 2010 lows if Scotland votes to leave UK
- Latest podcast, which also includes the Scottish referendum
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