Home Forex Weekly Outlook April 19-23 – Central banks, inflation in spotlight
Majors, US Dollar Forecast, Weekly Forex Forecasts

Forex Weekly Outlook April 19-23 – Central banks, inflation in spotlight

Kenny Fisher
Updated:

The US economy continues to recover, as consumer spending showed strong gains in March. The Eurozone continues to grapple with high Covid rates and many parts of Western Europe are under lockdown. In the UK, a successful vacccine rollout has led to further easing in health restrictions.

In the upcoming week, the ECB and Bank of Canada will hold policy meetings. The UK releases key inflation and employment data.

Eurozone CPI posted a gain of 1.3% in March, up from 0.9% a month earlier. Inflation remains below the ECB target of 2% but is gaining strength.

In the UK, March PMIs signaled strong economic growth. Services PMI improved to 56.3, up from 49.5. This was well into expansionary territory, above the 50-level. Construction PMI jumped to 61.7, up from 53.3. This showed the strongest rate of construction output growth since September 2014.
The quarterly BoC Business Outlook Survey indicated that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID”‘19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven. The ADP Employment report surged, with 634.8 thousand new jobs in March.
In the US, CPI rose in March, but the reaction of the US dollar was muted. Headline CPI climbed from 0.4% to 0.6% and Core CPI improved to 0.3%, up from 0.1%. Retail sales soared in March – headline retail sales came in at 9.8% and the core reading rose 8.4%, well above the forecast.
  1. Canada Budget Release: Monday, Tentative. The Trudeau government releases its first budget in two years. The government is expected to pledge tens of billions of dollars in spending to boost the economic recovery, as the government eyes a possible election later in the year.
  2. UK Employment Report: Tuesday, 6:00. Wage growth has been at high levels. In January, wage growth came in at 4.8% and the estimate for February stands at 4.7%. Claimant Change jumped to 86.6 thousand in February and is expected to fall to 24.5 thousand in March.
  3. UK Inflation: Wednesday, 6:00. With lockdown restrictions easing, inflation is expected to move higher. Headline CPI is projected to rise from 0.8% in March, up from 0.4%, while Core CPI is expected to climb from 0.9% to 1.1%.    
  4. Canada Inflation Report: Wednesday, 12:30. The recovery is gaining traction, but CPI remains well below the BoC target of 2 percent. We await the headline and core inflation releases for March.
  5. BoC Rate Decision: Wednesday, 14:00. With the economic outlook improving more quickly than anticipated, the BoC could announce a tapering of QE at the upcoming meeting. If so, the BoC would be the first G-7 central bank to tighten policy since the Covid-19 pandemic.
  6.  ECB Rate Decision: Thursday, 11:45. The ECB is expected to maintain its current policy. The market will be focusing on the rate statement and looking for any comments on inflation or the emergency pandemic program.
  7. US Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 13:45. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth, as the PMI came in 59.1 in February. The March forecast stands at 60.6. The 50-level separates contraction from expansion.

Safe trading!

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

WARNING: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice and we are not authorised to provide investment advice. Nothing on this website is an endorsement or recommendation of a particular trading strategy or investment decision.  The information on this website is general in nature, so you must consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. Investing is speculative. When investing your capital is at risk. This site is not intended for use in jurisdictions in which the trading or investments described are prohibited and should only be used by such persons and in such ways as are legally permitted. Your investment may not qualify for investor protection in your country or state of residence, so please conduct your own due diligence or obtain advice where necessary. Crypto promotions on this site do not comply with the UK Financial Promotions Regime and is not intended for UK consumers. This website is free for you to use but we may receive a commission from the companies we feature on this site.

© forexcrunch.com All Rights Reserved 2017 – 2024