- The AUD/USD pair slipped to a fresh weekly low on yesterday’s heavy losses.
- The Fed’s hawkish outlook and softer risk stance supported the US dollar.
- The decline in US bond yields limited the upside for the US dollar and helped limit further losses.
In the first half of the European session, the AUD/USD price maintained the suggested tone and was last seen near a weekly low of 0.7475.
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Following a second straight day of selling, the pair slid further this week from its highs near the 0.7660 area reached in June 2021. Furthermore, a hawkish Fed outlook on Wednesday led to a rise in the US dollar near a two-year high, which, in turn, put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Hawkish FOMC minutes
As the FOMC meeting minutes from 15-16 June showed, this is the case. The Federal Reserve announced in March that it was poised to raise interest rates by 50 basis points amid rising inflation concerns. Additionally, according to the minutes, there was general agreement about the need to trim the huge central bank’s balance sheet by a maximum of $95 billion a month to tighten financial conditions.
Ukraine crisis
Investor sentiment was dampened by aggressive Fed plans and fading hopes of a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine. The fall in stock markets illustrated this by strengthening the safe-haven dollar and driving capital out of the perceived riskier Australian dollar. However, the decline in US Treasury yields limited the upside potential of the US dollar.
Commodities prices and hawkish RBA
Furthermore, the RBA’s hawkish comments and rising commodity prices have limited further losses for the resource-dependent Aussie, at least for now. Earlier this year, the RBA backtracked from its promise to be patient while tightening policy, noting that domestic demand remains strong and spending rises after the Omicron slump.
What’s next to watch for AUD/USD price?
However, acceptance below the psychological 0.7500 indicates that the AUD/USD pair has peaked in the near term and indicates that the corrective decline will continue. Now, traders are eagerly awaiting the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report, which, along with US bond yields, will move the US Dollar and add some momentum to the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD daily open interest
The AUD/USD price fell sharply on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the daily open interest did not show any significant change. Hence, the bias is not yet clear.
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AUD/USD price technical analysis: 100-SMA remains the key
The AUD/USD price formed a top reversal pattern in the 4-hour timeframe on the 5th of April. Since then, the price has constantly been dropping. The price has just hit the lower end of the previous range. The same level coincides with the 100-period SMA. If the pair does not find any support around the level, we may see a deeper correction towards 0.7400.
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Saqib Iqbal
