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AUD/USD  posted sharp losses  last week,  as the pair slipped about 170 points and closed just  above the  0.70 line.  This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and Retail Sales.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar was hit by yet another disappointing Chinese figure, showing slower projected growth. In the US, Yellen surprised with a relatively hawkish speech,  and  the week  ended on a positive note  as  Final GDP for Q2  posted a strong gain.  The battle around 0.70 continues.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”AUDUSDUpdate”/]

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUD_USD_Forecast.Sep28-Oct2.

 

  1. Building Approvals: Wednesday, 1:30. The week kicks off with this market-mover. This indicator tends to show a lot of fluctuation, which often means that readings are well off the forecasts. In July, the indicator bounced back with a sharp gain of 4.2%, easily beating the estimate of 2.9%. The markets are bracing for a decline of 1.9% in the August release.
  2. AIG  Manufacturing  Index: Wednesday, 23:30. This index has been moving upwards, and came in at 51.7 points in August, marking a 3-month high. Will the index continue to rise in the September release?
  3. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:00. The Australian dollar is sensitive to Chinese key data such as the Chinese Manufacturing PMI, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. In August, the index slipped under the 50-line (which separates contraction from expansion), for the first time since February, with a reading of 49.7 points. This almost matched the forecast of 49.8 points. No change is expected in the September reading.
  4. Chinese Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. This report follows last week’s  Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 47.1 points in August, shy of the estimate of 48.1 points. The Final  Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm the earlier reading, with an estimate of 47.2 points.
  5. Commodity Prices: Thursday, 6:30. Weaker Chinese demand for Australian raw materials continues to weigh on commodity prices. The August release came in at -20.9%. Another sharp decline is expected in the September reading.
  6. Retail Sales: Friday, 1:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the movement of AUD/USD. The indicator disappointed with a decline of 0.1% in July, its first decline in 14 months. This surprised the markets, which had expected a gain of 0.4%. Analysts are expecting a rebound in August, with an estimate of a 0.4% gain.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.7189 and quickly touched a high of 0.7197.  It was  almost all downhill from there, as the pair tested  support at  the 70 level  (discussed last week), dropping to a low of 0.6938. The pair then recovered  and  closed at 0.7015.

Live chart of AUD/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.7440 capped the pair back in August, and remains key resistance. 0.7284 is a clear separator of ranges, also seen around the same time, and is also stronger.

The line of 0.7213 was a swing low before the recent crash, and serves as a minor line. 0.7160 capped the pair quite recently and could slow a rise.

The round 0.71 mark was challenged quite recently and is immediate resistance. It is closely followed by 0.7060 which worked in both directions  of late.

The very round level of 0.70 worked as a cushion in August and is under strong pressure. 0.6930 is where the pair bounced from in September.

The round level of 0.69 is next. The final support line for now is 0.6775.

I remain  bearish on AUD/USD

The Fed balked at a rate hike in September, but  if the US can  post some strong readings,  we  could see  Yellen press the rate trigger before the end of the year. The Aussie is floundering, and the symbolic 0.70 level could be the next to break.

In our latest podcast we explain why the dollar defies the doves

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