Charlie Aitken has strong opinions: the Bell Potter stockbroker talked to the AFR and explained how Australia basically joined the currency wars. This is set to result in AUD/USD at 0.68 as well as interest rates below 2%.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens speaks early on Friday. Will he contribute to a lower Aussie?
Atiken explains that levels of both the Baltic Dry Index (a reflection of trade for some) and the interest rate in Australia are below the worst levels following the 2008 crisis. This should result in aggressive easing policy that would contribute to a devaluation of the A$.
AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7760, above the lows seen earlier in February but certainly on lower ground.
Two important events await the Australian dollar: the release of Australian job data on Thursday at 00:30 GMT and Stevens’ testimony on Friday in Canberra (Thursday 22:30 GMT).
See how to trade the Australian employment data with AUD/USD.
In order to see a deterioration towards 0.68, or at least the previous RBA target of 0.75, we would need a combination of both underwhelming employment data and also a dovish speech by Stevens.
But are things really that bad for Australia? The most recent figure released from the land down under is not too bad: a gain of 2.7% in home loans, more than expected and on top of an upwards revision.
Needless to say, the employment figures are more important.
In our latest podcast, we do an Aussie Analysis, Greek Grindings and Oil Optimism.
Here is how it looks on the chart:
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