AUD/USD manages to rise above 0.8260, thanks to a sell off in the US dollar, that continues retraces its big Non-Farm Payrolls related gains.
The Australian dollar already fell to deeper levels, mostly due to a weak business confidence report and the accompanying assessment that the RBA is set to cut more than once in 2015. 0.8223 is the new 4 year low.
The monthly business confidence report by National Australia Bank dropped from 5 to only one point for November. This is the lowest since July 2013. They said that profits, sales and employment were all weaker. They still do not see any clear beneficiaries of the recent AUD depreciation.
Worse off, the analysts at NAB released a prediction that the Reserve Bank fo Australia is set to cut the rates twice in 2015: specifically in March and August. They added insult to injury by cutting GDP forecasts and lifting employment forecasts. The fall in commodity prices is singled out as a major issue, and this is no surprise.
Opinion: AUD Weakness To Be Front Loaded – Barclays.
0.8260 provides some support, and resistance awaits at 0.83, followed by 0.8360. 0.8223 is now the lowest level. Real support awaits only at 0.8066. Here is the chart:
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