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Forex Daily Outlook – June 4th 2009

Huge day in forex trading: Rate decisions from Europe, Britain and Canada dominate the day. Ben Bernanke’s speech will also impact the markets, as well as many other indicators. Let’s dive in…

Australian Trade Balance starts the day. The surplus is expected to squeeze from 2.5 billion to 1.7 billion. After GDP was positive, this figure could also surprise. Also in Australia:  RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak, and might shed some light on the strong economy.

For a special coverage on the Aussie, read:  Will Australia go Down Under? Aussie Outlook

European Retail Sales are predicted to remain unchanged after falling last month. This is merely a warm up for the interest rate decision.

Europen Minimum Bid Rate is expected to remain unchanged, at 1%. After announcing Quantitative Easing measures, all eyes will be on the ECB Press Conference. Will Jean-Claude Trichet offer more unconventional measures? The EUR/USD made nice gains this week. Will it continue?

British  Official Bank Rate is also expected to stay intact: at the historic low of 0.5%. Mervyn King’s BoE might also elaborate on the QE plan, which now stands at 125 billion Pounds. We’ll get answers at the  MPC Rate Statement.  Will GBP/USD break the strong resistance line at 1.67?

For a special coverage on the British Pound, check out:  Britain’s Got Talent.

In the US,  Unemployment Claims are expected to stay almost unchanged, at 620K. This might also serve as a prelude to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a conference organized by the Fed. He might deliver more news, when volume is high in the forex market.

Also in the US, quarterly  Revised Nonfarm Productivity is predicted to rise by 1.2%.  Revised Unit Labor Costs are predicted to rise by 3%. These figures would have a positive impact, unless they would be overshadowed by other events.

It’s a big day in Canada. Building Permits start at 12:30 GMT, and they’re expected to turn negative and fall by 9.2%.

Half an hour later, the BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at the bottom – 0.25%. Loonie traders will focus on the  BOC Rate Statement. Will the rise in commodity prices help the Canadian economy? Will optimism be expressed by Mark Carney?

It isn’t over yet – at 14:00 GMT, Ivey PMI is expected not only to stay above the water (above 50), but even to rise from 53.7 to 54.3. All these events could help USD/CAD to break the stubborn 1.08 zone.

For more on the Canadian dollar, read:  Loonie At Parity? Canadian Dollar Outlook

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.