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AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook – August 17-21 2009

AUD/USD traded between support and resistance lines. It enjoyed the big hint of RBA Governor Stevens regarding a rate hike, but didn’t stop the greenback bulls. Here’s an outlook for this week’s 4 Australian events, and a technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD forex graph with support and resistance lines marked:

AUD/USD Technical Analysis August 2009

Despite holding a rather high-interest rate, Glenn Stevens sees the end of stimulus efforts, and even raising interest rates, or “bringing them back to normal”, in his words.

  1. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Australia has the highest interest rates in the West, 3%, and the RBA recently decided to keep them that way. On Tuesday at 1:30 GMT, we’ll get a chance to see what the RBA seniors were discussing, and if they think of raising the rates sooner than later, as Glenn Stevens hinted.
  2. Malcolm Edey speaks:  RBA Assistant Governor  Dr. Malcolm Edey will speak in a conference in Sydney, and might shed some more light on Stevens’ testimony last week. This important speech, titled  “Examining the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Retail Financial Services in Australia” will take place on Tuesday at 23:20 GMT.
  3. MI Leading Index: 9 economic indicators are combined into the Leading Index published by the Melbourne Institute. After two positive months, this index fell by 0.2% last time. Will it get back up? Answers are due on Wednesday at 1:00 GMT.
  4. RBA Monthly Bulletin: Yes, another verbal indicator is with us this week from the land down under. Despite being released after the  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the RBA heads’ important speeches, this array of articles outlines the economic situation from the RBA’s perspective, and this might hint on future interest rate decisions. Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie began the week by stepping down. During the early hours of Tuesday it broke the minor support line at .08230, but his move, during the Asian session, proved to be a false break. Not only did AUD/USD climb back up, it also made nice gains, reaching 0.8477 at the peak. But Friday’s dollar bulls didn’t skip the Aussie, and it finally closed at 0.8323, not far from last week’s close.

There are no major changes since last week’s AUD/USD Outlook. 0.85 continues to be a firm resistance line. It was reinforced this week. IF AUD/USD breaks upwards, the next line is at 0.8830, quite far out.

Looking down, the false break of 0.8230 also reinforces this support line. Below that, only the vicinity of 0.77 is a major support line.

On one hand, the Australian economy is strong and might see a rate hike sooner than later. On the other hand, the dollar bulls seem strong. I have a slight tendency towards the Aussie, but it first needs to break 0.85.

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.