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Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar – November 15-19

Manufacturing sales, Foreign Securities Purchases and Leading Index are the major events for the loonie traders this week. Here is an outlook on the market movers ahead.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Canadian dollar November 15-19

Last week Canada’s central bank defended the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to pump billions of new dollars into its economy, while admitting concerns about global currency tensions that many say were aggravated by the U.S. move. Will this weeks events alter BOC’s decision to support the QE2?  Let’s start:

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 13:30. Canadians bought fewer cars and trucks in August dropping 4.8% from 2.3% increase in July. Nevertheless preliminary industry data suggests sales were up 4% in September which will boost the reading this time to 3.2%.
  2. Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Sales by Canadian manufacturers rose more than expected in August with a reading of 2.0% due to higher shipments of vehicles, petroleum and coal products. This rise followed 0.9% drop in July. Despite the high Loonie the manufacturing sector continues to advance its recovery and even continues to build on its inventory stock for three consecutive months. A corrective drop of 0.3% is expected now.s
  3. Foreign Securities Purchases: Thursday, 13:30. Foreign investment rose to a seasonally adjusted CAD 11.09 billion in August, after rising to CAD 5.51 billion in July when forecasts predicted an increase to CAD 6.01 billion in August. The rise is credited to investment going to corporate and government business enterprise bonds. A smaller rise of 9.21 billion is expected now.
  4. Leading Index: Thursday, 13:30. Canada’s index of leading economic indicators fell unexpectedly in September by 0.1%, after a revised gain of 0.6% in August despite estimations of 0.2% rise. Bank of Canada lowered its third quarter economic growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.8% and said growth will slow to 2.3 percent next year after the government slows stimulus spending. A rise of 0.4% is expected now.
  5. Wholesale Sales: Thursday, 13:30. Canadian wholesale sales surged by 1.2% in August better than the 0.5% rise predicted. This was due to higher machinery and equipment shipments amounting to C$44.5 billion. This figure helped elevate the GDP by 0.3% in August.A smaller rise of 0.3% is predicted now.
  6. Jean Boivin speaks: Friday, 4:00. BOC Deputy Governor Jean Boivin will deliver a speech titled “Where the Economy and Finance Meet” at the Okanagan CFA Society, in Kelowna. Boivin is one of two deputy governors responsible for overseeing the Bank of Canada’s analysis of domestic and international economic developments in support of monetary policy decisions. As a member of the bank’s Governing Council, he shares responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability, and for setting the strategic direction of the bank. His speech may provide clues on future monetary policy.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

USD/CAD struggled between parity and the 1.01 line (mentioned in last week’s outlook), before rising and closing at 1.0115, a gain of 100 pips in the week.

Looking up, the 2009 low of 1.02 provides immediate, yet weak resistance.  Above, the 1.0380 line is a very strong resistance line on the upside. It prevented the pair from  rising several  times in recent months, and was left in the distance in the past weeks.

Higher, 1.05 capped the pair twice during August and is a tough line..  Even higher, the stubborn 1.0680 served as resistance in July and in August, for more than one day in each attempt to break higher.

The next levels are far – 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit  of a long-term range in 2009. Even higher on the upside, 1.0850, which was also a swing high in May.

Looking down, 1.01 now serves as support, after being a resistance line in the past week. Parity is naturally the next strong support line.

Below parity, the year-to-date low of 0.9930 is the next support line, followed by 0.98 and 0.97, which were support lines back in 2008.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

Despite the retreat and Friday’s drop in oil prices, the Canadian economy is still strong (as seen in jobs) and should enjoy the implementation of QE2 in the US, which is likely to result in higher commodity prices.

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Anat Dror

Anat Dror

Anat Dror Senior Writer I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew. In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students. I've also worked as a community organizer