AUD/USD Outlook August 6-10

The Australian dollar pushed higher last week, as AUD/USD  gained  about  one cent, closing at 1.0566.  The upcoming week is busy with 10 releases. Highlights include  including the Cash Rate and key employment data.  Here is an outlook  of the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The aussie was trading in a narrow range  for the most of  last week. Like many other major currencies, the Australian dollar improved against the greenback, following strong US employment data at the end of the week.

Updates: MI Inflation Gauge gained 0.2%. It was the  inflation indicator’s first  increase since April. ANZ Job Advertisements declined 0.8%, the indicator’s fourth consecutive drop. As expected, the RBA held maintained its key interest rate at 3.50%. In its Rate Statement, the central bank noted that UAD/USD remains high, despite the weak global economy, and that it was too early to  measure the full impact of previous cuts to interest rates. The aussie responded positively, crossing above the 1.06 line before retracing. AUD/USD was trading at 1.0584.   Home Loans were up 1.3%, but fell short of the estimate of 2.1%. AUD/USD was down slightly, as the pair was trading at 1.0563. Employment Change rebounded nicely, as 14.0 thousand new jobs were created in July. This easily beat the market estimate of 10.2K. Unemployment was unchanged, at a rate of 5.2%. The markets  had forecast a slight  increase to 5.3%.  Chinese CPI fell for the sixth straight month, dropping by 1.8%. This was a notch below the estimate of 1.7%.The aussie pushed above 1.06 after the favorable employment data, but then retraced. AUD/USD was trading at 1.0576.

 AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:30. The inflation indicator declined 0.2% in the previous reading, the first negative reading in 2012. Will the indicator bounce back into positive territory in August?
2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This indicator has been below the zero line for three straight readings. The markets are hoping for better news in the August release.
3. AIG  Construction Index: Monday, 23:30. This index has been around the 35 point level, indicating sustained contraction in the  construction sector. Will the index show some improvement this month?
4. Cash Rate: Tuesday, 4:30. The markets are predicting the the RBA will leave the key interest rate  the 3.50%. level, where it has been since  May.
5. RBA Rate Statement: Tuesday, 4:30. The markets will carefully review the Rate Statement, looking for any clues as to future monetary policy.
6. Home Loans: Wednesday, 1:30. The previous reading was a disappointment, coming in at -1.2%. However, the markets are expecting a much rosier August, with an estimate of 2.1%.
7. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. After a disastrous July reading of -27.0 thousand, the markets are expecting a strong reading this month, with an estimated of 10.3K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to nudge up from 5.2% to 5.3%.
8. Chinese CPI: Thursday, 1:30. The key inflation index is expected to rise to 2.2%, up from 1.7% in July. This is an important release, as Australia is China’s number one trading partner.
9. RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, 1:30. This quarterly report provides important information about  the bank’s monetary policy, and  analysts will be looking for any hints about future  interest rate decisions.
10. Chinese Trade Balance: Friday, Tentative. The Trade Balance surplus widened in July, and another increase is expected in August. A reading which is higher than forecast is bullish for the aussie.

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 1.0462, and dropped to a low of 1.0432. The pair then climbed  up to a  high of 1.0580, and closed at 1.0566, just above the resistance line of 1.0557  (discussed last week).

We  start with resistance at 1.1012, which has held firm since last August. The next resistance line is at 1.0874. This is followed by resistance at 1.0718, which last saw action in March. Below, there is resistance at 1.0605, just above the round figure of 1.06. This line held firm this week as the pair moved upwards, and could face further testing if the aussie continues to push higher.

We first encounter support for the  pair at 1.0557, which is a weak support line. Next is the line of 1.0482, which  has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels. Next, there is support at 1.0402.   This is followed by 1.0340, which was breached  recently as the pair surged upwards. Below, there  is strong  support at  1.0230.

The next line of support is 1.0174.  This is followed by support at 1.0080, protecting the psychologically important parity level. The parity line is the next line of support, and was last tested in June. The next support level is 0.9917. This is followed by support at 0.9860, which has provided support since June.

I am bullish on AUD/USD.

Since mid-July the volatile pair has pushed up almost six cents, although let’s not forget there was a sharp decline during that  period.  Will the aussie continue to sparkle? Given the turmoil in Europe and  mixed data out of    the US economy, there is room for the  aussie  to make further gains, especially if the Australian economy can produce some strong data.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.