Home USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 31-Sep. 4

USD/JPY  plunged  to start off the week but recovered and ended the week unchanged.  The upcoming  week has  seven events, highlighted by Average Cash Earnings.  Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The yen rose sharply early in the week in response to the financial meltdown due to the Chinese stock market crash. In Japan, consumer spending numbers missed expectations, while retail sales were excellent. Over in the US, Preliminary GDP beat expectations, helping the greenback recover.

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USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it:


  1. Preliminary Industrial Production: Sunday, 23:50. This manufacturing indicator bounced back in June with a gain of 0.8%, easily beating the estimate of 0.4%. The forecast for the July report stands at 0.1%.
  2. Housing Starts:  Monday, 5:00. Housing Starts provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. June was a banner month, with the indicator surging some 16.3%, crushing the estimate of 3.2%. Another strong release is expected in July, with an estimate standing at 11.2%.
  3. Capital Spending: Monday, 23:30. This indicator measures the change in business spending on a quarterly basis. The indicator jumped 7.3% in Q1, compared to the forecast of -01%. The markets are expecting even better news in the Q2 report,  with an estimate of 9.0%.
  4. Final Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:35. This PMI has hovered close to the 50-point level, which separates contraction from expansion, throughout 2015. The index improved to 51.2 points in August, which was within expectations. The forecast for September stands at 51.9 points.
  5. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The average yield on 10-year government bonds dipped to 0.40% in August, down from 0.51% a month earlier.
  6. Monetary Base: Tuesday, 23:50.  This indicator is used by the BOJ as its main operating target, and is useful in following the BOJ’s monetary stance. The indicator slipped in August  to 32.8%, down from 34.2% a month earlier.
  7. Average Cash Earnings: Friday, 1:30. The week wraps up with Average Cash Earnings, which is closely linked to consumer spending, a key component of economic growth. The indicator slipped by 2.4% in July, its first decline since November 2014. This weak reading was well short of the forecast of +0.9%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in August, with an estimate of 2.3%.

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY  opened the week at 121.73 and touched a high of 121.93, as resistance remained firm at 122.01 (discussed last week). The pair then plunged all the way to 115.90 in a  volatile start to the week.  The pair  then moved higher during the week and closed at 121.69.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

126.59 has remained intact since May 2002.

125.86  continues to be a strong resistance line.

124.16  is the next line of resistance.

123.18 was a support role for most of August but is currently a resistance line.

122.01 held firm last week and remains a weak resistance line. Will it see more action this week?

121.39 is the first support level.

120.65  is  protecting the  symbolic 120 level.

119.65 was  a key support  line in April.

118.68 is the next support line.

117.44 had held firm since February, but was easily breached by surging yen early in the week. It remains a strong support level.

I am  neutral  on USD/JPY

The yen started the week with a bang  courtesy of the China  crisis,  but was unchanged by week’s end. A potential delay in the Fed hike  could help the yen, but the Japanese economy is no match for its US counterpart.

In our latest podcast we explain what’s going on with EUR and China before previewing the big events ahead:

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Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.