Home USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 31 – Nov. 4

The Canadian dollar posted slight losses last week, closing just under the 1.34 line. This marked its lowest weekly close since March.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US, durable goods orders were mixed. Advance GDP beat expectations  at 2.9%, but the internals were mixed. UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to its lowest level since September 2015 and missed expectations. There were no major releases out of Canada last week.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”USDCADUpdate”/]

USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:


  1. RMPI: Monday, 12:30.  RMPI measures inflation in raw materials purchased by manufacturers. The index has posted two straight declines, as Canada continues to struggle with low inflation levels.
  2. GDP: Tuesday, 12:30.  GDP is one of the most important economic indicators and an unexpected reading can have a sharp effect on the movement of USD/CAD. The monthly indicator posted a gain of 0.5% in August, but is expected to drop to 0.2% in the September report.
  3. RBC Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 13:30. This minor indicator continues to post readings just above the 50-point level, indicative of a stagnant manufacturing sector. In September, the index dipped to 50.3 points, well short of the estimate of 51.5 points.
  4. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks: Tuesday, 16:00. Poloz will speak at an event in Vancouver. The markets will be looking for any clues regarding future BoC monetary policy.
  5. BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins Speaks: Wednesday, 17:30. Wilkins will deliver remarks at an event in Toronto.
  6. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks: Friday, 00:35. Poloz will deliver remarks in Oshawa. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Canadian dollar.
  7. Employment Rate: Friday, 12:30. This key indicator should be treated as a market-mover. The economy added 67.2 thousand jobs in September, crushing the forecast of 8.5 thousand. However, the markets are bracing for a sharp downturn in October, with an estimate of -10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0%.
  8. Trade Balance: Friday, 12:30. Trade Balance is closely monitored, as it is linked to currency demand. Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to C$1.9 billion in August, smaller than the estimate of a deficit of C$2.5 billion. The positive trend is expected to continue in September, with the deficit expected to drop to C$1.7 billion.
  9. Ivey PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. Ivey PMI tends to show significant volatility from month to month. The indicator jumped to 58.4 points in September, well above the forecast of 53.0 points.

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3351 and quickly dropped to a low of 1.3275. USD/CAD then reversed directions and posted small gains over the course of the week. The pair touched a high of 1.3433 as resistance remained firm at 1.3457 (discussed last week). USD/CAD rebounded late in the week, climbing to a high of 1.3355.  The pair closed the week at 1.3391.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.3813. This line was a cushion in January and February.

1.3672 is next.

1.3551 has provided resistance since March.

1.3457 was a cap in September 2015. It held firm in resistance last week.

1.3353 is a weak support line. It could see action early next week.

1.3219 was a cap in April.

1.3081 is the next support line.

1.2990 has held firm since early September. It is the final support level for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

A weak Canadian GDP could add to the loonie’s woes next week. As well, positive sentiment towards a Fed rate hike in December is bullish for the US dollar.

Our latest podcast is titled Bold in oil and talking up the currency

Follow us on Sticher or iTunes

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.