41 million Americans have already voted at the time of writing, and the polls aren’t open yen. According to various reports, Latino / Hispanic voters are voting in massive numbers, much more than in 2012.
This could be the tipping point for a Clinton victory, or at least cement her win, especially if this mobilization wins Florida, a must-win state for Trump. Polls remain very close, with a tight electoral map, many toss-up states and a 3% lead of Clinton, extremely close and well in the margin of error. Clinton may even win the popular vote and lose the elections like Gore lost to Bush in 2000. This scenario is certainly plausible.
More: Clinton Cleared – Dollar Defies Donald
Enter the Hispanic vote
These voters leant towards Democrats in the past. In this election, Trump’s opening remarks against Mexico have pushed more against Trump and for the Democrats. When he announced his candidacy he said “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people”
The spotlight is on Nevada, a relatively small state, but in a tight election, it could make the difference. In Clark County, which consists of Las Vegas, saw huge lines, with some already speculating that Trump may have already lost Nevada despite very tight polls. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has a slightly higher chance of winning the state. The Western state has only 6 votes
Florida is already a big prize, and it’s almost impossible to see Trump win without the state’s 29 electoral votes. Once again, there are reports that Democrats have a lead in early voting. 45% of registered voters have already voted.
Many Hispanics live in states which are not competitive, such as California and Texas, but their votes in Nevada, Florida and perhaps Arizona and Georgia, could compensate Clinton for a potential loss in her “firewall” states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Early voting and early trading
If this is the narrative, markets could open positively, with rises in USD/JPY and USD/CHF (no safe haven demand) alongside falls in USD/CAD and USD/MXN (risk currencies / US trade partners).
Needless to say, there are so many polls coming out and early moves could be erased later on.
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