Home USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 24-28 2016 prediction
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USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 24-28 2016 prediction

USD/CAD reversed directions and posted modest losses last week. The pair closed at 1.3471.  This week’s highlights are the retail sales reports.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US inflation numbers were mixed, while unemployment claims dropped to a 43-year low.  In Canada, Manufacturing Sales beat the estimate, while CPI readings were within expectations. Update:  WTI leaps on reports of progress in the technical OPEC talks in Vienna. The Canadian dollar follows, but hesitates.

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USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:


  1. Wholesale Sales: Monday, 13:30. The indicator jumped 0.8% in August, crushing the forecast of 0.2%. The estimate for the September report stands at 0.3%.
  2. Core Retail Sales: Tuesday, 13:30.  This is the key event of the week. The indicator has failed to post a gain since June. However, the indicator is expected to rebound in September, with a forecast of 0.6%
  3. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 13:30.  Retail Sales has posted three straight readings of -0.1%, all of which missed expectations. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in September, with an estimate of 0.7%.
  4. Corporate Profits: Thursday, 13:30. Continuing declines in this indicator point to trouble in the business sector. In September, the indicator posted a decline of 3.4%.

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3526 and touched a high of 1.3589, testing support at 1.3551 (discussed last week). USD/CAD then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 1.3398. The pair closed the week at 1.3471.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

Technical lines, from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.3911.

1.3813 was a cushion in January and February.

1.3672 is next.

1.3551 was tested early in the week as the pair moved higher before retreating.

1.3457 is a weak support level. This line was a cap in September 2015.

1.3351  is next.

1.3219 was a cap in April.

1.3081 is the final support line for now.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD

The US dollar has enjoyed broad gains since the Donald Trump won the US election. With the Fed expected to raise rates in December, sentiment towards the greenback is very favorable, and risk currencies like the Canadian dollar could take a hit.

Our latest podcast is titled  Not all financial assets are Trump-ed equally

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Safe trading!

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.