The latest opinion polls by Opinium shows a marginal lead for Leave: 45% against 44%. This is a very small change from the previous poll that showed an even picture of 44%. One can say that it shows no fresh momentum for Remain but a more careful way to look at it shows basically no change. Nevertheless, the website providing the details of the poll crashed minutes after the release: people are eager to understand the small print.
The neck-to-neck picture is also seen in the FT’s Brexit Tracker. It’s actually the same result: 45% to 44%. Looking at the “Poll of Polls” we see a small lead for Remain: 51% against 49%.
Update: TNS shows Leave leading with 43% against 41% and that is narrower than their previous oll. However, it is 49% to 42% among likely voters. So perhaps Remain closed the gap but can lose on turnout.
The tight situation keeps nerves very tight: GBP/USD is slipping but within the range.
Cable is currently at 1.4675, well below the May high of 1.4770 which serves as resistance and above support at 1.4650. Further support is at 1.4580 and 1.45. High resistance is at 1.48. Volatility is set to erupt once real results begin flowing in tomorrow night.
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