Canadian Dollar Outlook – July 20-24 2009
Canadian Dollar Forecast

Canadian Dollar Outlook – July 20-24 2009

The Canadian dollar made a strong and independent move against against the greenback last week. This week features many important releases in Canada that could impact USD/CAD. Here’s an outlook for this week’s key events and a technical analysis for the loonie.

The interest rate decision dominates the scene, yet there are lots of other important releases:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: This figure actually shows the flow of money into Canada. We’ve seen nice surprises in the previous months. After standing at 9 billion last month, expectations are for a lower number this time – 7.17 billion. This is quite a late release, but it has importance this week due to timing – it’s released on Monday at 12:30 GMT (together with Wholesale Sales) at a time when no American figures are released, so it can sure move the loonie.
  2. Wholesale Sales: Similar to the  Foreign Securities Purchases, it’s a late figure but with a good timing, Monday 12:30 GMT.  Wholesale Sales are predicted to take a dive of 2.5% after dropping by 0.6% last time. There’s a good chance of a positive surprise here.
  3. Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada isn’t expected to raise the rock-bottom interest rates until the end of 2009. So, don’t expect the Canadian  Overnight Rate to move from 0.25%. Traders will carefully read the accompanying  BOC Rate Statement that is published at the same time. Will the statement show optimism for recovery, or complain about the current situation? The delicate wording and the commentary about the statement will sure move USD/CAD. It’s published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT.
  4. Retail Sales: Retail Sales are an important release everywhere. Last month saw a big disappointment, with a fall of 0.8%. Consumers are still not confident. This time, Retail Sales are predicted to turn positive, and rise by 0.5%. The complementary figure, Core Retail Sales, is very important as well. Here, expectations are for a more modest rise – 0.3%. Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
  5. BOC Monetary Policy Report: On Thursday at 14:30 GMT, we’ll get a look into what the Bank of Canada thinks about the economic conditions, and especially about inflationary pressures. This insight is a basis for future monetary policy. The release of this quarterly report is followed by a press conference by BOC Governor Mark Carney. When meeting the press, Carney could face tough questions and release some interesting statements that could shake the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD will naturally move on American events as well, with Existing Home Sales and Ben Bernanke’s testament being the highlights of this week. But with so many important Canadian figures, the focus for loonie traders will be on the northern side of North America…

USD/CAD Technical Outlook

The Canadian dollar began an independent move of strengthening last week. USD/CAD broke an uptrend support line and fell face down, from 1.1670 to 1.1120. This wasn’t correlated to other currencies’ moves against the dollar. Also the Japanese made an independent move one week earlier. Check out my post CAD/JPY Going Wild.

The loonie stopped at 1.1115, which now serves as a minor support line. Looking further down, 1.08 is a very strong support line. It served as a resistance line last year for several months, and was tested as a support line 6 weeks ago.

Looking back up, the 1.1470 point is still significant. Despite being broken recently, it served many times as a stopping point for USD/CAD in both directions. Further up, 1.1730 is another resistance line, far away…

These lines in the USD/CAD can be seen in the graph:

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Further reading:

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.