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  • EUR/USD maintains a downtrend below 1.1850.
  • Upbeat data from the US keeps Euro under pressure.
  • The 1.1780 and 1.1875 figures provide a directional bias to the traders.

The EUR/USD forecast remains biased to the downside after the pair found rejection near 1.1850 key resistance.

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On Thursday, the Dollar moved to strengthen against the European currency after the publication of  macroeconomic reports  from the US.  The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 26k for the week to 360k, which is in line with analysts’ forecasts.  As a result, the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits was 3.241 million against the forecast of 3.241 million.

The US export price index rose and decelerated in June from 2.2% to 1.2%, as expected by the market.  On the other hand, the import price index decreased from 1.4% to 1%, the forecast assumed the indicator at the level of 1.2%.

EUR/USD technical forecast:

The EUR/USD price resumed its decline after a short correction from local lows of 1.1794.  Furthermore, there is a renewed decline towards the RSI support level on the 4-hour chart after a reversal in the neutral zone, which indicates the development of a downtrend.  Thus, the forecast for the EUR/USD pair for July 16, 2021, assumes that the lows will be updated with a market movement towards the 1.17 area.

EUR/USD forecast support and resistance levels

The price is close to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (1.1875), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2023 (Murray [5/8]). The key level for the bears is seen as the level of 1.1780 (Murray [1/8]) in the forex forecast. If we fix below it, the decline may continue to 1.1718 (Murray [0/8]) and 1.1657 (Murray [-1/8]).

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The indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger and RSI bands turned down, but the MACD histogram is shrinking in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1962, 1.2023.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.

EUR/USD forecast on 4-hour chart
EUR/USD forecast on 4-hour chart

EUR/USD trading scenario

Short positions can be opened below 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop loss around 1.1825. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 1.1875 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2023 and stop-loss at 1.1820.

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