EUR/USD Forecast November 25-29 – German, eurozone CPI in spotlight

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EUR/USD showed limited movement last week, posting slight losses. The upcoming week has six events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
German and eurozone services PMIs were slightly above the 51-level, which indicates stagnation. The manufacturing sector continues to contract, although German and eurozone PMIs improved to 43.8 and 46.6, respectively.
In the U.S., the Fed said it would take a break from recent rate cuts unless there was a significant change in economic conditions. The rate cut in October was considered hawkish, as the Fed took pains to reassure investors that the U.S. economy was in good shape, despite the rate cut. The minutes noted that U.S. economic conditions were generally positive, with an outlook of moderate growth, a robust labor market and inflation close to the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Ifo Business Climate:  Monday, 9:00. The indicator has posted two straight readings of 94.6 pts. A slight improvement is expected in November, with an estimate of 94.9 pts.
  2. German GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. Consumer confidence slipped to 9.6 in October, down from 9.9 points a month earlier. This was the lowest figure since February 2016. Little change is expected in November, with an estimate of 9.7 pts.
  3. German Preliminary CPI: Thursday, All Day. The German locomotive has slowed down, and this has been reflected in weak inflation numbers. Final CPI for October came in at 0.1% and the initial estimate for November stands at -0.7%.
  4. Monetary Data: Thursday, 9:00. M3 Money slipped to 5.5% in September, down from 5.7% a month earlier. Another gain of 5.5% is projected in October. Private Loans have been pegged at 3.4% for three successive months. The forecast for October stands at 3.5%.
  5. French Preliminary GDP: Friday, 7:45. The initial release for Q2 GDP showed a gain of 0.3%, just above the estimate of 0.2%. This figure is expected to be confirmed in the second estimate.
  6. Inflation: Friday, 10:00. Final eurozone CPI for October came in at 0.7%. The initial estimate for November stands at 0.8%. For the core figure, final CPI came in at 1.1%, while the estimate for the initial estimate in November is slightly higher, at 1.2%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1390 has held firm in resistance since June. 1.1345 is next.

1.1290 was last tested in early July. This is followed by 1.1215.

1.1119 (mentioned last week) switched to resistance in early November.

1.1025 is an immediate resistance level. 1.0925 is next.

1.0829 has held in support since April 2017.

1.0690 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The U.S. economy continues to outperform that of the eurozone, and the euro has dropped close to the symbolic level of 110. If EUR/USD falls below this line, investors could react negatively and the decline could continue.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.