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EUR/USD  suffered in a fresh bout of Brexit-related selling but the slide seems limited. Will the fall accelerate now?  Inflation figures stand out.  Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

After some calm in markets, reality began biting in on Brexit. Apart from the withdrawal freeze in some UK property funds, the impact on the euro has been via bond yields which are tumbling down. With more and more assets providing negative yield, the ECB has less assets to buy in its 80 billion euro QE program. This spells trouble for Draghi.  Services PMIs in the  euro-zone still look OK but they do not seem to reflect the post-Brexit world. Factory orders in  Germany do paint a more gloomy picture. In the US, the NFP came out better than expected and temporarily helped the greenback.

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EUR/USD daily chart  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD technical chart July 11 15 2016

  1. Eurogroup meetings: Monday. Finance ministers of the euro-zone convene to discuss various matters. Sanctions against both Portugal and Spain following their missed budgets are high on the agenda.  A discussion about Greece’s debt is also on the cards. And of course, the  financial situation in the continent following Brexit will certainly be discussed. If finance ministers express concern, it could hurt the euro. Spelling out optimism and a plan could be helpful.
  2. German inflation figures: Tuesday, 6:00. According to the initial read, prices advanced by 0.1% in Germany in June. This was in line with expectations. The final figure will probably confirm it. The Wholesale Price Index is another inflation indicator. This time it is expected to rise 0.3% m/m after 0.9% last time.
  3. French Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:45. The second largest economy saw prices advancing by 0.2% m/m in June and also here, a  confirmation is on the cards.
  4. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. Industrial output in the euro-zone is released  after the  main countries have already released their  figures. Nevertheless, surprises are quite common here. A nice rise of 1.1% was reported in April. We now get the figures for May. A drop of 0.8% is expected.
  5. Final CPI: Friday, 9:00. The initial  inflation numbers from the euro-zone came out  better than expected: headline inflation returned to positive ground with 0.1% y/y and also core  inflation advanced from the lows and hit 0.9%. These numbers will probably be confirmed now.
  6. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The euro-area enjoys  a wide surplus, mostly thanks to Germany’s exports.  A surplus of 28 billion was seen in April and May could be similar: 25.2 billion euros.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar  could not break to higher ground but eventually slipped under the 1.1070 level mentioned  last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1535 is a stepping stone as seen in May 2016 and also beforehand. It is followed by the very round level of 1.15.

1.1460 was a key resistance line in 2015 and 1000 above the multi-year lows. 1.1410 capped the pair in early June. 1.1375  worked as resistance in February and as support in May 2016.

1.1335 worked as the lower bound of a higher range and then capped recovery attempts in May.  1.1230 capped the pair after the fall in May and works as resistance.

1.1175 was the low point in the mid-May fall.  1.1140 cushioned the pair in October.  1.1070  served as a clear separator of ranges during February and also beforehand.

1.10 is a round number and  significant resistance. 1.0905 is the swing low seen in June and serves as weak support. 1.0825 worked as support in early March 2015 and  should also be watched. This is now a triple bottom.

The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support.  1.0710 is the  next support line on the  chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

Further below, the 2016 low of 1.0520 and the 2015 low of 1.0460 provide further support.

I remain  bearish  on  EUR/USD

The post-Brexit shocks are likely to continue weighing on the euro. In addition, the low bond yields in the euro-zone could force the ECB to scramble to add more measures as the pool of eligible assets to buy.

Our latest podcast  is titled  3 markets – 3 totally different Brexit reactions

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