EUR/USD Mar. 29 – Falling From Resistance

EUR/USD is trading lower in range after failing to challenge the resistance. It’s falling once again on fresh bullish comments from the Fed and despite better European data.  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Active session sees a gradual climb from 1.4070 to almost 1.4150.
• Current range – 1.4030 – 1.4160

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.4030, 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:    1.4160, 1.4282, 1.4450, 1.4580, 1.48, 1.50.
• 1.4160 has a more important role now as resistance, although it still plays second fiddle to 1.4282, the one year high.
  
• 1.4030, the important support line, is now undergoing serious tests.

Euro/Dollar bouncing off support  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 6:00  German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.9, actual 5.9.
• 6:45 French Consumer Spending. Exp. +0.6%. Actual +0.9%.
• Throughout the day – German CPI. Exp. +0.4%.
• 13:00  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. -3.1%.
• 14:00 US  CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 64.9.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Mixed Federal Reserve: After we got many hawkish comments around the weekend with  many Fed official spoke out about stopping QE2 and one member, Charles Plosser, also spoke about raising the rates, we now got fresh dovish comments from Evans and Rosengren about keeping loose policy. But yet again, James Bullard said that normalizing could happen before the crises end. Rate hike not ruled out in the US.
  
• Irish Banks Default: After the second EU summit failed to find a better solution for the current problematic Irish bailout scheme, the government moves on to use the default / restructuring weapon. Here’s an analysis of the Irish move and the meaning for the euro.
• Default for Greece: The first country to receive a bailout is widely thought to default – fail to pay its debt. This is according to an economists’ survey by the BBC.
• Bailout for Portugal – After the Portuguese government collapsed, the recent credit downgrades by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P and the yields that are over the roof, ECB member Evald Nowotny made an open call for a bailout. This isn’t good for the Euro.
• European officials state rate hike is underway:  European central bankers make their message very clear – the rate is going to rise. These talks  sent the Euro higher, and they join the mix of European talks.
• Mid-East Crisis: Oil continues to ease as important oil-exporting cities in Libya, such as Ras Lanuf, are back in the hands of the rebels – the rebels are allowed to export oil, while the government led by Gaddafi is sanctioned from doing so. Oil is lower, and this supports the dollar.

Currensee Community: 51% are long , 49% are short. These are 1143 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.