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EUR/USD is making a small recovery within a lower range, after it began facing the bitter reality of the debt crisis. Will it break lower or complete the comeback? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Rather calm session after falling beforehand.
  • Current range – 1.3860 – 1.3950.

  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
  • Above:  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160, 1.4282, 1.44
  • While the round number of 1.40 is eyed by many, real resistance is only at 1.4030.
  • Key support is at 1.3860, which was the previous peak of 2011. It now worked as a bounce line and stopped the fall of EUR/USD.

Euro/Dollar in narrow range under resistance – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 11:00 German Industrial Production. Exp. +1.8%. Actual +1.8%.
  • 18:30 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks.
  • 21:00 ECB member Axel Weber talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Bailout for Portugal – Yields broke higher – to 7.65%.  There are growing talks that Portugal will need to take a bailout, as yields are above 7% for too much time. Portugal denies, but the  deadline is getting closer.
  • The prices of oil retreated from their highs, although the Middle East is still troubled. The  ongoing battles in the oil dispatching city of Ras Lanuf in Libya draw the world’s attention, as well as Saudi protests.
  • Greece received a significant downgrade from Moody’s – three notches. Despite this bad news, the oil prices continue, at least for now, to weigh on the dollar.
  • US employment figures were good –  unemployment dropped below 9% and it seems that the economy is gradually moving forward.

Currensee Community: 64% are long , 36% are short. These are 1565 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.