EUR/USD is steady in Tuesday trade, as the pair remains at high levels. In the European session, the euro is trading in the mid-1.38 range. German Trade Balance dipped to a three-month low and was short of the estimate. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings. The markets are not expecting much change in the February release.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- EUR/USD showed little activity in the Asian session and closed at 1.3858. The pair has edged lower in the European session.
Current range: 1.3830 to 1.3895.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3830, 1.3773, 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450.
- Above: 1.3895, 13940 and 1.40.
- 1.3895 is the next resistance line. 1.3940 follows. It is protecting the key 1.40 line.
- 1.3830 is providing weak support. 1.3773 is stronger.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 German Trade Balance. Exp. 19.3B. Actual 17.2B.
- All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
- 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Exp. 95.3 points.
- 14:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Exp. 4.02M.
- 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. 0.5%.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Nonfarm Payrolls improve: US numbers have been lukewarm in recent readings, but last week ended on a high note, as Nonfarm Payrolls jumped to 175 thousand in February, compared to just 113 thousand last month. This easily beat the estimate of 151 thousand. The Unemployment Rate edged up to 6.7%, up from 6.6% in the previous reading. With the markets expecting the Fed to trim QE next week, every employment release should be treated as a market-mover. We’ll get a look at JOLTS Job Openings later on Tuesday.
- QE taper likely: With the US posting solid Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls late last week, the markets can breathe more comfortably as the Fed is likely to take its scissors and trim QE next week for the third time. New York Fed President William Dudley stated last week that the threshold to alter the Fed’s program to wind up QE was “pretty high”. In other words, short of a serious economic downturn in the US economy, we can expect the QE tapers to continue.
- Euro surges after ECB decision: The euro rose sharply after the ECB rate decision on Thursday, but this time it was due to a lack of action by the central bank, rather than a change in monetary policy or any dramatic comments by Draghi. There had been speculation that the ECB might lower deposit rates into negative territory or even commence a mini-QE scheme. In the end, the Bank held the course, with Draghi reiterating his well-worn script that the ECB’s high degree of accommodative monetary policy would continue for as long as needed. He also noted that the Eurozone economy was recovering at a moderate pace, and shrugged concerns about inflation levels well below the ECB’s target of 2%. Draghi may be able to point to encouraging data out of Germany to bolster his case that the region is headed in the right direction, but the data from other major economies, such as France and Italy, raise questions about the health of the Eurozone.
- France in trouble?: French releases continue to struggle, as Industrial Production fell by 0.2% last month, its fourth decline in five readings. The markets had expected a gain of 0.6%. Trade Balance weakened in February and Consumer Spending posted a sharp decline, pointing to weak consumer confidence in the economy. Italian Industrial Production improved nicely in February, climbing 1.0%. This beat the estimate of 0.4%.
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