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After all the excitement last week from EUR/USD,  the pair has steadied, trading in the mid-1.37 range in Tuesday’s European session.  The euro has not reacted to a dismal reading from German ZEW Economic Sentiment, as the key indicator dropped to a 16-month low. Eurozone Economic Sentiment followed suit with a  soft reading in April. In the US, today’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD was very quiet in the Asian session, trading close to 1.3760. The pair is steady in the European session.

Current range: 1.3740 to 1.3785.

Further levels in both directions:   EURUSD Daily Forecast May13

 

  • Below: 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3450
  • Above: 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964, 1.40, 1.4055 and 1.4105
  • 1.3740 is providing weak support. The round  number of 1.37 follows.
  • 1.3785 is a pivotal line. True support is only at 1.3780.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 9:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 41.3, actual 33.1 points.
  • 9:00  Eurozone Economic Sentiment. Estimate 63.5, actual 55.2 points.
  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 94.6 points.
  • 12:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.6%.
  • 12:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 14:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar  forecast.

 

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • German, Euro  Economic Sentiments slide:  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a key indicator,  weakened badly in April, dropping to 33.1 points. This was well off the estimate of 41.3 and its worst showing since December 2012.  The  Eurozone release followed suit,  dropping to 55.2 points, compared to an estimate of 63.5 points. These  indicators  are based on a survey of institutional investors and analysts, and the weak numbers point to  increasing concern  about the Eurozone and German  economies.
  • Euro backtracks after Draghi comments: The ECB held its policy meeting  last Thursday, and the central bank provided plenty of excitement for the markets. Mario Draghi took note of worrying inflation indicators, saying that food and energy prices, the strong euro and weak domestic demand were all factors in weak inflation which has engulfed the Eurozone. He then surprised the markets by adding that the Bank would be comfortable taking action in June, after re-examining inflation and growth forecasts in June. This is the clearest sign in months that the ECB is prepared to take action, and a reaction from the market was quick to follow, with the euro suffering sharp losses after coming within a few pips of the key 1.40 line. Draghi added that the ECB would continue to monitor exchange rates. Many analysts are of the view that the “line in the sand” for the ECB is the 1.40 level, and if the euro does move above this line, it’s more than likely that the ECB will take action to reign in the high-flying currency.
  • Eurozone manufacturing sputters: Eurozone manufacturing data continues to disappoint, and  of particular concern are weak figures from Germany, the Eurozone’s number one economy.  German  Industrial Production  came in at  -0.5%, well off the estimate of  +0.3%.  Earlier in the week, German Factory Orders slipped 2.8%, its sharpest decline since October 2012. This was nowhere near the estimate of 0.3%. French Industrial Production also looked weak, posting a decline of -0.7%, short of the forecast of 0.3%. We will get initial GDP numbers and final inflation figures next week.
  • Yellen cautious about economy:  The Federal Reserve Chair testified twice  and gave a cautious thumbs-up to the economic recovery  but pointed  to two sore spots – the job market remains weak and inflation is below the Fed’s target of 2%. Fed chair Janet Yellen stated that she therefore expects that low interest rate levels will continue for a “considerable time”. Yellen has stated previously that slack remains in the economy, and the Fed is expected to proceed carefully with future trims to its QE scheme. Since December, the Fed has trimmed the asset-purchase program by almost half, cutting it to $45 billion each month.

More:  Is the Eurozone Crisis Really Over?