The Euro broke down once again, and lost key support this time. The upcoming week is full with events, culminating with the initial releases of GDP on Friday. Here’s an outlook for this week’s events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, with a look downwards.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
Apart from the Euro’s own weakness, it was also hurt by American Non-Farm Payrolls, which seemed confusing at first, but then confirmed the break of the support line with the Euro diving down. Let’s start the review. The technical analysis will follow.
- Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. 2,800 investors and analysts are surveyed about their economic mood. It has been negative since May 2008, quite some time. Lately it has been improving and reached a score of -3.7. It’s expected to edge up to -2.3, closer to turning positive.
- German Final CPI: Published on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. One month of strong rises in prices was probably followed by a drop that erased it. December’s 0.8% rise was followed by a drop of 0.6% in January, according to the initial release. This will probably be confirmed.
- French Industrial Production: Published on Wednesday at 7:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy has seen a nice rise of 1.1% in its industrial output, after months of drops. Another rise, of 0.6%, is predicted in this important indicator.
- ECB Monthly Bulletin: Published on Thursday at 9:30 GMT. This report shows what the European policymakers saw when making their last rate decision. This might shed some more light on the shaky Eurozone.
- German Prelim GDP: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy is the driver of the whole continent. Germany was relieved of recession already in Q2 of 2009, but hasn’t been that strong since then. This early report for Q4 is expected to show that the economy grew by a very modest 0.1%, much less than the 0.7% rise in Q3. This is very fragile. An outcome of 0% or renewed contraction will badly hurt the Euro. Note that French GDP (exp. 0.5%) and Italian GDP (exp. 0.1%) are released later. They are of smaller importance, but any contraction will weigh on the Euro as well.
- French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 7:45 GMT. The main job number for France is released only once per quarter – this makes it an important event. The French job market squeezed by 0.6% in Q3, and is now expected to grow by 0.2%. France’s unemployment rate is lower than the zone’s 10% unemployment rate.
- Flash GDP: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. 3 hours after the first release of German GDP, the first release of GDP for the whole continent is expected to be better – growth of 0.4%, exactly as in Q3. This will conclude a choppy Friday morning for EUR/USD.
- Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. The continent’s industrial output is released after the main countries already did it, but it’s still a market mover. The nice rise of 1% last month is predicted to be followed by small 0.3% rise this time.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD was a big loser this week, losing the all-important 1.3750 and closing at 1.3667. Every week in the past 4 weeks saw the Euro losing another range – about 900 pips in total.
1.3750 was an important support line, and now supplies the first line of resistance – strong resistance. Above that, 1.40 is a round number that served as a support line before. 1.42 is the next line, being both a nice support and a nice resistance line recently.
1.4450 served on both sides in many occasions. In past weeks I’ve mentioned more lines, but they are two far now.
Looking down, 1.3580 was the low in the past week, and also a peak in April 2009. This is a minor support line. 1.3420 is already a more significant support line, working as such in a few occasions during the spring of 2009.
Even lower, there’s already a big distance to the next line – 1.3080. From this spot, EUR/USD began a leap that began the long-term upward trend. It probably won’t be tested this week.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
Everything is going against the Euro: its own troubled countries on the flanks, a high unemployment rate and dollar strength. The fast moves might indicate a more relaxed week this time, but the general direction remains down.
This popular pair receives many great analyses on the web. Here are a few:
- James Chen discusses the current downtrend.
- Joel Kruger on DailyFX provides a technical analysis and notes the 10-day SMA.
- The Geek Knows brings a review and a look on the next week.
- Mohammed Isah marks the next levels for EUR/USD.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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