EUR/USD Outlook – November 1-5

A busy week expects Euro/Dollar traders, with the rate decision being the main event. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, which is due to pick a direction this week, after intense and choppy trading.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Nervousness characterized EUR/USD in the past week, failing to settle on higher ground or drop lower. The size of  quantitative  easing in the US has been a main driver of the pair. We’ll get the results this week. Let’s start:

1. Final Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 9:00. The manufacturing sectors of Euro-zone countries showed more optimism in October, according to the initial release, with the score rising to 54.1 points. This will probably be confirmed now.
2. Final Services PMI: Thursday, 9:00. Contrary to manufacturing, services slowed down in October, but remained in positive territory, above 50 points, meaning growth. The score of 53.2 will probably be confirmed now.
3. PPI: Thursday, 10:00. The first release for consumer prices showed an unexpected rise in October – an annual rate of 1.9%. We now get a different look – at producer prices. They are expected to remain rather stable, with a monthly rise of 0.3%. Only a big jump will raise the question of a rate hike.
4. Rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. Less than 24 hours after the FOMC meeting in the US, European policymakers meet to set the interest rate for the Euro-zone. No changes are expected – the Minimum Bid Rate is likely to stay at 1%. The press conference, held 45 minutes later, might include interesting comments from the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, especially as another member, Axel Weber, calls to end the bond buying program and to begin thinking of raising the rates.
5. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00. The volume of sales dropped by 0.4% last month – a  disappointment. This time, a correction is expected with a nice rise of 1.1% in volume. Note that Germany’s weak figure might pull it lower.
6. German Factory Orders: Friday, 11:00. After a big rise of 3.4% last month, growth in factory orders is expected to slow down – only 0.5%. Europe’s locomotive can’t grow fast all the time. A negative number will weaken the Euro.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar continued falling at the beginning of the week, dropping below the 1.3830 line mentioned last week, but far enough from 1.37. It then recovered and managed close just below the pivotal 1.3950 line, a weekly loss of less than 10 pips.

Above, 1.4030 proved once again to be an important line. It supported and later resisted EUR/USD at the beginning of the year as well. The round number of 1.40 is eyed by politicians, but isn’t of high importance.

Higher, 1.4217 capped the pair  in January and served as support in December. Even higher, 1.4450 supported and resisted during that same period of time and is relevant in case of a break. The next level is 1.4580 which was a stubborn peak around January as well, and will be tested on a huge QE program.

Looking down, 1.3830 was a strong line of support during February and March, and also worked in the past week, although in a lesser scale than the previous week. The 1.37, which was the bottom beforehand is another minor level of support. 1.3637 already serves as a stronger support line.

Lower, 1.3530 was a support line at the beginning of the year, and had a minor role last month. Just under it, 1.3435 provided strong support in February and is yet another minor line.

1.3334 was a peak in mid August, a peak that held for quite some time.  The next lines below are 1.3267, which provided support recently, and 1.3114, which worked in both directions many times in the past. There are more lines below.

Choppy trading is likely to end this week. What direction will EUR/USD pick?

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

A big quantitative easing program in the US is what fueled EUR/USD. This week, we’ll get answers. Without a huge program, the hot air is likely to come out of EUR/USD.

Anyway, nervous trading will probably continue until the decision. This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

• James Chen’s strength/weakness meter shows that the dollar and the Euro are squeezed together in the middle.
• Andriy marks technical levels for all major pairs, and is cautious about EUR/USD.
• Henry, on Casey’s site, discusses scalping  opportunities  on EUR/USD.
• Mohammed Isah explains the current price action in EUR/USD.
• TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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