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The  euro  managed to recover, but didn’t get too far, as a Greek default is still on the cards. The upcoming week consists of important surveys and PMIs that will show if conditions continue to worsen. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

This week’s rate decision by the Federal Reserve might take away some of the attention from Europe. Greece has an impact also on major European banks, that had trouble with accessing dollar funding. The joint effort by 5 central banks, including the Fed and the ECB to supply dollar liquidity, gave a temporary boost to the common currency, but this seems like a preparation for the Greek default.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:Euro to dollar Chart September 19 23 2011

  1. German PPI: Tuesday, 6:00. Europe’s powerhouse experiences a rather surprising leap in producer prices in July, +0.7%, above expectations and in contradiction with the general slowdown reflected in other figures.For August a small drop is likely.
  2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This is one of most important indicators, though it tends to be rather pessimistic. Last month saw a very worrying drop to -37.6 points. A small improvement is expected now, but the number will likely remain negative, meaning pessimism. The all-European figure (less important) will probably tick up from -40.
  3. Flash PMI: Thursday. Begins in France at 7:00, continues in Germany at 7:30 and ends with the all-European data at 8:00. These releases promise a busy morning. The manufacturing sector in France and in the euro area as a whole is in contraction zone – under 50 points. Germany is still growing in this sector. If German manufacturing fall under 50, it will hurt the euro. The services sector is doing better, especially in France. The euro zone still enjoys growth with 51.5 points. Yet again, the 50 line will be closely watched.
  4. Industrial New Orders: Thursday, 9:00. The value of new orders in the industry is quite volatile. After a drop of 0.7% last month, a small rise is likely now.
  5. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. This official survey by Eurostat has been stable at moderate pessimism for many months, printing around -10 points. Last month saw a significant dip to -17, reflecting heightened fears. A similar number is expected now.
  6. NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. While coming from a small country, this wide survey is considered important. A big and disappointing drop from -2.5 to -7.8 points last month has shown that economic conditions are seriously worsening.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar fell to new lows at the wake of the new week, to 1.3495. It then recovered in an upwards channel, and even temporarily escaped it before getting back to it, and closing at 1.3792, well under critical resistance at 1.3838 (mentioned last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The high of November 2010 at 1.4282 was the point where the downfall began. This  line works better as resistance than as support..  1.4220, is another cap high in the sky.

Minor resistance at 1.4160 served as a point for another failed recovery attempt The round number of 1.41 managed to serve as a stubborn line of resistance beforehand.

Just above the round number of 1.40, we find the important line of 1.4030 turned into resistance – it was quite significant.    1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges. The pair got quite close to it just now, and it is now of stronger importance.

The swing low of 1.3838 held the pair and after EUR/USD fell to a six month low was a distinct line separating ranges just now. Below, 1.3788 was a minor pivotal line just now. We are just around it.

The round number of 1.37 is minor support at the moment. It was minor resistance early in the year. The low of 1.3630 seen in earlier is already more important support.

1.3570 which provided support in January and also beforehand is somewhat weaker now, but should still be noted. It’s followed by 1.3510 which provides a backup.

Very serious support is at 1.3440. It separated ranges in a very clear way many times in the past, making it of very high importance.

Minor support is at 1.3350, followed by 1.3250 which held the pair early in the year. Stronger support is at 1.3080, before the ultimate trough of 2011 at 1.2873.

Trendlines to watch

As seen on the graph, the pair traded in an uptrend channel just now. It temporarily broke out, but is still relevant. We are in the middle of the channel at the moment. Another visible line is the line of the collapse – sharp downtrend resistance. It managed to cap the pair when it broke higher, and it is now close to the 1.3838 line.

I am neutral on EUR/USD this week.

The general trend is down, especially as the leaders of the EU failed to make any progress on the next tranche of aid to the debt struck country, and time is running out. However, the Federal Reserve might surprise us with new monetary easing that might weaken the dollar. Extra caution is needed.

If you are interested in an alternative way of trading, check out the  weekly binary options setups, including EUR/USD of course.

What do you think will happen this week?

Further reading: