Forex Weekly Outlook May 23-27

The US dollar had a positive week, enjoying support from the Fed.  UK and US GDP updates, US durable goods orders and key German surveys stand out.  These are the highlights of this week. Join us as we explore the market movers.

The FOMC released  minutes from its April monetary policy meeting, where it showed growing support for a Fed rate hike in June. The majority of voters noted that if economic data will be consistent with economic growth in the second quarter, they will call for a rate hike in June. A follow up speech from Dudley also opened the door for a hike in July, after the EU Referendum in the UK. In any case, there is a hawkish shift and the dollar likes it. In the UK, more pro-Remain polls helped the pound. Commodity currencies were under pressure.  Let’s start,

1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic sentiment in Germany rebounded in April, rising sharply to 11.2 from 4.3 in the previous month. The reading was far better than the 8.2 estimate. ZEW noted the data was influenced by better economic data from China although it still posed a risk to Germany’s export-driven growth. Furthermore, UK’s possible exit from the EU poses another risk on Europe’s largest economy since China and the UK are Germany’s largest trading partners. A further rise to 12.1 is expected now.
2. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. German business sentiment declined slightly to 106.6, despite expectations for a rise to 107.1. Companies were less content with their current business conditions, while business expectations edged up to 100.4 from 100.0 in March as manufacturers upgraded their production plans. Economists from the IFO institute believe German economic activity will show a 0.6% growth while the second quarter is expected to be weaker with a 0.3% expansion rate. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.9.
3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.  The Canadian central bank kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% in April and didn’t seem to desire any changes in upcoming months. Canada’s  economic activity has picked up in the first quarter. The central bank expects economic growth will continue this year, upgrading its former estimate of a yearly growth rate of 1.4% to 1.7% in 2016.  For next, year, the bank expects  2.3% growth. However wearer business investment will be a negative force which might slow down the pace of hiring and affect growth. The BoC is not expected to change its monetary policy this month.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Crude Oil Inventories rose 1.3 million, missing predictions of a massive 3.1 million decline. Crude Oil trade remained above the $48 level. Prices remained high mainly due to production problems such as the massive wildfire in Alberta earlier this month.
5. UK GDP data: Thursday, 8:30. This is the second release for Q1 2016. According to the first release, the economy expanded by a slower rate of 0.4% q/q. The slowdown may be related to uncertainty regarding the results of the referendum. The number will likely be confirmed in this publication.
6. US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Orders for long lasting products edged up less than expected in March, reaching 0.8% following a 3.0% decline in the previous the weak demand for durable goods orders suggests soft global sales and lukewarm US consumer spending continue to weigh on bookings. Economists expected orders to rise 1.9%. Meanwhile, core orders excluding transportation declined 0.2% in March after a 1.3% fall in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise 0.3% in April, as core orders are expected post the same gain.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. US weekly jobless claims release showed a 16,000 decline in the number of claims form the previous week, reaching 278,000. This report is the 63^rd week where claims are below the 300,000 threshold, indicating healthy job gains. The four-week moving average rose by 7,500 to 275,750 from the previous week’s average of 268,250. Despite the continuous positive trend, the labor market has cooled over the last two months, but economists believe the employment market will regain strength in the second quarter along with an expected pickup in economic growth. The number of weekly claims is expected to decline slightly to 275,000.
8. US GDP data: Friday, 12:30. According to the first release, the world’s No. 1 economy slowed down and advanced only 0.5% in annualized terms. In the first revision, a small upgrade to 0.8% is on the cards given some improved data. In the past few years, first quarter growth was weak. It was sometimes blamed on the weather, which was  actually OK this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

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