GBP/USD Forecast July 3-7 2017

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GBP/USD soared last week, gaining 250 points. The pair closed at 1.3015, the first weekly close above the 1.30 level since May. This week’s highlights are the PMI reports. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.  

The pound jumped after BoE Governor Mark Carney left open the door to interest rate increases, in comments made at the ECB forum in Portugal. British Final GDP weakened, posting a small gain of 0.2%. Still, this matched the forecast. In the US, Final GDP in Q1 was revised upwards to 1.4%, above the estimate of 1.2%. In the US, the Fed sounded more skeptical about inflation picking up. Is the Fed having second thoughts about a third rate hike in 2017?

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The index continues to point to expansion in the manufacturing sector. In May, the indicator dipped to 56.7, within expectations. The estimate for the June report stands at 56.4.
  2. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speech: Monday, 12:00. Carney will speak at the Financial Stability Board in Frankfurt. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
  3. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The indicator improved to 56.0 in May, its highest reading since December 2015. The estimate for the June reading stands at 55.2.
  4. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This indicator measures consumer inflation in BRC stores. The index edged up to -0.4% in May. Will the upward trend continue in June?
  5. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. Services PMI softened in May, coming in at 53.8. This was short of the forecast of 55.1. The downward trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of 53.5.
  6. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Thursday, 8:30. This indicator is an important gauge of the strength of the housing sector. In Q1, the reading came in at GBP -10.2 billion, larger the estimate of GBP -9.5 billion. The estimate for Q2 stands at GBP -7.4 billion.
  7. 10-y Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. The yield on 10-year bonds was almost unchanged in June, coming at 1.14%.
  8. Halifax HPI: Friday, 7:30. The housing inflation index rebounded in May, posting a gain of 0.4%. This easily beat the forecast of -0.2%. The estimate for June stands at 0.2%.
  9. Manufacturing Production: Friday, 8:30. This key event should be treated as a market-mover. After three straight declines, the indicator posted a gain of 0.2% in April. However, this fell well short of the estimate of 0.8%. The upswing is expected to continue in May, with a forecast of 0.4%.
  10. Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30. The UK deficit narrowed to GBP 10.4 billion in April, below the forecast of GBP 12.0 billion. This marked the lowest deficit since January. The estimate for the May deficit is GBP 10.9 billion.
  11. NIESR GDP Estimate: Friday, 12:00. This monthly indicator helps analysts track GDP, as the official publication is only released each quarter.
  12. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Friday, Tentative. Carney will speak at the G-20 summit in Hamburg. The markets will be looking for clues regarding possible rate hikes by the BoE.

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.2744 and quickly dropped to a low of 1.2705. It was all uphill after that, as the pair climbed to a high of 1.3029, testing support at 1.3020 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.3015.

Technical lines from top to bottom

With GBP/USD posting sharp gains last week, we start at higher levels:

1.3480 was an important cap in July 2016.

1.3347 has held in resistance since September 2016.

1.3238 is next.

1.3112 has weakened in resistance following strong gains by GBP/USD.

1.3020 is protecting the 1.30 line. It was tested during the week.

1.2902 is the next support line.

1.2775 has switched to a support role following losses by GBP/USD.

1.2616 is the final support level for now.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

The British economy has been slowing down, as Brexit could finally be taking a bite out of the economy. At the same time, with inflation running at a 3 percent clip, there is strong support for a rate hike, and BoE Carney has changed tones and appears willing to consider a rate hike this year.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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