Fat finger? Or did the pound get carried away by a shift in polls?
After many long days of opinion polls showing a growing momentum for the Leave campaign, we have a change in direction towards the Remain campaign from one of the more prominent polling firms.
YouGov’s shows 43% against 42% for the Remain camp. This isn’t a huge margin to say the least, but this is a change in comparison to the June 3rd poll by YouGove which showed 45% to 41% for Brexit.
The poll is very fresh, conducted on Sunday and Monday. The firm publishes opinion polls quite frequently. Note that there are differences between phone and online polls, with the former leaning to Bremain while the latter leans to Brexit.
But the move upwards has a different character: GBP/USD was edging higher towards 1.45 in a very gradual manner, and suddenly the pair made a huge leap to tackle resistance at 1.4650, with a high of 1.4656. This didn’t last too long and cable fell instantly to the low 1.45 level.
This is a certainly a wild ride that shows how a mix of tension and low liquidity (late in the Asian session but well ahead of the European session) triggers high volatility.
More: Is your broker Brexit-ready?
Here is how it looks on the chart:
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