USD: Just existing home sales and the Chicago Fed activity index released today. The home sales data is expected to show continued signs of improvement, seen rising at 5.25mln from May’s reading of 5.18mln. Such a reading would be a welcome boost for the US economy as the improvement in housing seen through last year has flattened out during the first half of this year. It would take a strong number to lift the dollar significantly, which remains focused on labour market data.
Idea of the Day
The yen finds itself firmer overnight on the back of the all-important election results. The Upper House elections had put the reform agenda on hold, but with Abe’s LDP party having gained a majority (together with junior coalition partner), the results are seen as giving ‘Abenomics’ a much needed boost. So why is the yen firmer? On one level, it’s a curious reaction given that Abenomics has proven to be mostly yen negative so far. But the third ‘arrow’ of structural reforms aimed at boosting competitiveness is perhaps the least yen negative one, not least because the rewards from such measure (in higher growth, and eventually inflation) are likely to be years more than months in the making. So today is more a “sell the rumour, buy the fact” move from the yen, having been the weakest performer on the majors over the past week. That said, it does underline what we’ve previously stated, namely that we are not heading for another period of yen depreciation matching the pace of earlier in the year.
Latest FX News
JPY: Results so far show the ruling LDP has gained enough seats to secure a majority in the upper house (helped by junior coalition partner New Komeito) , giving it control of both houses of parliament for the first time in 5 years. The yen was firmer on the news, once again nudging below the 100 level, whilst stocks ended in positive territory from a weaker start.
CAD: Friday saw inflation data come in at 1.2% YoY, from 0.7%, with the core rate printing 1.2%. The CAD is currently sitting on the 50-day moving average at 1.0354.
AUD: The Aussie remains in a period of consolidation, having traded through the 0.92 level for the past five sessions. Focus this week is on quarterly inflation data released on Wednesday, which is seen holding steady at 2.5%.
Further reading: EURUSD questions for this week
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