Greek Elections: Pro-Bailout Coalition Not Guaranteed Even if ND

In a surprising move, the pro-bailout socialist PASOK party stated that it will not join a coalition with pro-bailout New Democracy, if anti-bailout SYRIZA is not included in such a coalition.

Update: Final results – Pro bailout camp wins.  Read the results, coalition prospects, analysis, and market reaction  (which was short lived).

This is quite surprising and could weigh on the euro. However, given the past of PASOK leader Venizelos, he might change his mind quickly.

Evnagelos Venizelos, who was a prominent minister of finance during the negotiations for the second bailout package, already changed his mind several time when the chance of clinging to power was offered. This might be part of the coalition negotiations.

So for now, this is bad news, but it probably won’t last.

PASOK came in third according to projections, winning around 13% of the vote. New Democracy is projected to win with nearly 30%, with SYRIZA trailing closely behind it.

The final exit polls were already more decisive than the first ones, and real results solidify the win for New Democracy.

According to Greek law, the winner gets a bonus of 50 seats in the 300 seat parliament, so if current results are confirmed, ND and PASOK could easily form a coalition with around 160 seats.

If PASOK refuses to join such a government, the political system will likely be stuck – the worst case scenario for the euro.

See how to trade the Greek elections