Non-Farm Payrolls at 161K, strong wages at 0.4% m/m,

Strong jobs report in the US despite a miss on the headline number: 161K. There was a nice upwards revisions worth 44K and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% as expected. Wages are up 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, the fastest wage growth since 2009. The U-6 is at 9.5%, the lowest since 9.5%. Revisions are worth a positive 44K. The participation rate is down to 62.8%, a small disappointment.

The USD is slightly stronger. The data is certainly good enough for a hike. It now depends on the  elections.

The US was expected to report a gain of 175K jobs in October, up from 156K in September (before revisions).  Wages were predicted to rise by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% and the unemployment rate was expected to tick down from 5% to 4.9%, a number that has political implications.

The US dollar was somewhat on the back foot ahead of the elections.

See the full guide for trading the elections.

October NFP Data (updating)

• Non-Farm Payrolls:  161K  (exp. +175K, last 156K before revisions)
• Average Hourly Earnings 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y – the best since 2009  (exp. +0.3% m/m, last month +0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y)
• Revisions:  +44K total
• Participation Rate: 62.8%  (62.9% last month )
• Unemployment Rate: 4.9%  (exp.4.9%,  last month 5% before revisions)
• Private Sector: 142K  (ADP showed 147K).
• Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.5%  (previous: 9.7%).
• Employment to population ratio: 59.7%  (previous: 59.8%)
• Average  workweek: 34.4  (last month: 34.4).

NFP Currency Reaction

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1110, under the strong resistance at 1.1125. The pair slides a few pips.
• GBP/USD was around 1.2495, still  thrilled by its Super Thursday. It eases to 1.2480.
• USD/JPY drifted under 103 on election fear. It is now above this threshold.
• USD/CAD traded around 1.3425 and it had its own jobs report. The pair trades at 1.3335 despite an excellent jobs report in Canada.
• AUD/USD was around 0.7685, around the top of the recent range and slides to 0.7675.
• NZD/USD was at 0.7320. The kiwi enjoyed a superb jobs report in New Zealand. It falls to 0.7305.

The preview: trading the NFP with EUR/USD