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As voting begins in Scotland, most  the latest polls converge around  a very  narrow victory for No, by 52% to 48%.  Those that don’t show this result have either 49% or 47% for Yes. So, it’s either all  pollsters are right, or all will fall together.  Here is the case for Yes, and why pollsters have a harder  job this time.

GBP/USD is now moving back up  above 1.63, recovering from the lows that it reached after the dollar-rally that was inspired by the FOMC. The market was keen on buying dollars. Most currencies suffered more than sterling.

We can expect the Scottish referendum  news to dominate every single move of the pound from this moment on, with cable even ignoring important retail sales data from the UK and significant  US figures.

Polls open at 6:00 GMT and close at 21:00. At the moment, there are no confirmed  television exit polls, but data will certainly flow out of Edinburgh. Real results are expected to begin flowing from 1:00 GMT on Friday.

Low liquidity +  critical news = huge moves.

See the full  Scottish timetable for forex traders

And here is the chart showing the latest moves on IndyRef day:

GBPUSD September 18 2014 higher as voting begins in Scotland referendum day


More on the big event: