This Asian session will not be boring in forex trading: results from the US presidential elections will begin flowing from the different US states during the US evening / European night / Asian morning.
Update: Obama is re-elected – EUR/USD jumps towards resistance – will the dollar continue weakening, or could this turn around?
Here is a timetable for the key releases that will be closely watched by the markets:
* All times are GMT
- Tuesday, 23:00: Initial and partial results in Kentucky and Indiana, which are expected to easily be won by Romney.
- Wednesday, 00:00: Voting ends in Virginia and partial closing of voting in Florida, both are very close, and in New Hampshire, which leans Obama. TV networks will be very busy with speculations, and trading could become quite choppy. In addition, the final closing of voting in Indiana and Kentucky will undoubtedly send them to Romney, together with South Carolina and Georgia. Vermont will go to Obama. Update: tie in Virginia.
- 00:30: Ohio – The Key State: According to many analysts, the Buckeye state is the key to the White House. Obama leads in this state according to the polls and this could get him re-elected. If this becomes reality, Romney will have an almost impossible task, needing to win many more states. If Romney takes Ohio, Obama will still have a chance of winning, better than Romney’s, but also hard. In addition, results in North Carolina (likely Romney) and West Virginia (strong Romney) will be announced. Big jumps could be seen in markets at this point. Update: CNN projects Obama ahead 51:48% in Ohio.
- 1:00: Voting ends in Florida and New Hampshire, results from Pennsylvania – critical results that conclude an hour of high tension. The first two are swing states and if the winner in Ohio takes both, it could be over at this point. Pennsylvania will likely go to Obama, but Romney made a last moment effort there. In addition, Michigan will most likely go to Obama. Markets could stabilize if there is a clear result at this point. More strong Obama states: Rhode Island, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington DC, Delaware, Illinois and Connecticut. Romney is expected to take South Dakota, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama and Mississippi.
- 1:30 Arkansas set to go to Romney.
- 2:00 More swing states: If there is no clear outcome, eyes will be set to Colorado and Wisconsin, which will see voting ending and they could make the difference. Also Michigan will report results. If Romney already won Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but lost Ohio, he will need to win as many of these states as possible. Fresh choppy trading can be seen. In addition, Romney is expected to easily win Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Louisiana and Wyoming. Obama is expected to easily win New York, New Mexico and Minnesota. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are projected to Obama, extremely close race in Florida.
- 3:00 Last swing states: Iowa and Nevada – Obama is expected to win both, but nothing is certain. North Dakota, Utah and Montana will go to Romney.
- 4:00 Pacific closing: California, Oregon and Washington will go to Obama and Idaho to Romney. At this point, the results should be clear, and also the winner of the popular vote can be assessed.
- 6:00 End of long night Results from Alaska – to go to Romney. At this point, traders in London will already be reacting to the results.
In the unlikely case that by the European morning there is a dispute about the results, markets will be a big mess (and some lawyers will celebrate).
Let me know if something important is missing here.
- 5 Reasons Why Greece Could Leave the Euro-Zone After the US Elections
- Additional trade idea: Sell EUR/USD on Obama Win, Buy AUD/USD on Romney Win