USD/CAD dropped lower, as the loonie managed to recover despite the greenback’s strength. The highlights of this week are the rate decision by the BOC and the employment figures. Will Poloz and co. accept rising inflation?. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada’s current account deficit was wider than expected, at 11.9 billion. GDP came out better than expected, with 3.1% in Q2, but that came on top of a downwards revision for Q1. In the US, data was positive, especially with the upgrade of Q2 GDP and strong consumer confidence. What is the next direction of the pair?
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. No change is expected in the 1% interest rate. The big question is: will the Bank of Canada stop saying that inflation is temporary, while it is moving higher? Also the recent strength in GDP does not really support a neutral bias, but rather a hawkish one.
- Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s balance turned positive, and with a bang: a surplus of 1.9 billion was seen in June. A smaller one is predicted for July: 0.9 billion Canadian dollars. Note that it is published together with the US trade balance.
- Employment data: Friday, 12:30. Statistics Canada messed up and originally reported a loss of jobs instead of the 41.7K gain that was released afterwards. What will it be now? Probably a small gain in jobs, at 10.3K, and no change in the unemployment rate that stands at 7%.
- Ivey PMI: Friday, 14:00. After two negative months, this survey of 175 purchasing managers returned to growth in July with 54.1 points. A slightly stronger figure is predicted now: 55.7 points. Note that a score above 50 points represents growth.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD started the week with yet another move towards 1.10, but as this failed the pair dropped lower and reached levels unseen for some time and hit a low of 1.0811.
Live chart of USD/CAD:
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
1.1050 was a stubborn peak during the spring and remains a distant point. The very round number of 1.10 is very strong resistance, as we’ve learned again in August.
Below, 1.0960 capped the pair in June and is minor resistance. 1.0925 served as support during August and has a stronger role now.
1.0860 supported the pair in May and in August and is weak support now. Below, 1.0811 is the recent low, and it serves as strong support.
Lower, 1.0750 was of high importance in several periods in recent years and is now support. 1.0710 was a cushion for the pair in June and July and is strong support.
The last line for now is 1.0620, the low seen in June and July.
I am bearish on USD/CAD
The recent improvements seen in the Canadian economy, can force the BOC to change its assessment economy, despite the fact it wants a weaker currency. And while the US continues showing positive signs, the C$ could still outperform the USD.
Listen to a preview of September’s big events in the latest episode of Market Movers:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.