USD/CAD Outlook – April 12-16 2010

USD/CAD parity was closely watched in the past week. Trading around this area will probably continue. Here’s an outlook for the 5 events that will move the loonie, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

Canadian employment figures disappointed, and prevented USD/CAD to settle below 1.0000. It will be interesting to watch the pair this week. Let’s start:

1. Housing Starts: Published on Monday at 12:15 GMT. In the past three months, Canadian housing starts exceeded expectations and sent the loonie higher. After reaching 197K, starts are predicted to rise to 201K. This is an important indicator.
2. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Published on Monday at 14:30 GMT. The Bank of Canada surveys 100 businesses about their economic sentiment. There is no number released, only a written report. Nevertheless, this report is considered a good indicator of the next decisions by the BOC, especially as it’s released only once a quarter.
3. Trade Balance: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s balance turned positive last month and was also better than expected. The surplus of 800 million will probably be repeated with the same figure. This figure is also released in the US at the same time – making it a very volatile timing for USD/CAD.
4. NHPI: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Just to add more action, this housing figure is released with the Trade Balance. Prices of new homes have risen steadily in the past 7 months. The rise of 0.4% last month will probably be repeated with a 0.5% rise this time.
5. Manufacturing Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Sales have risen in Canada in the past 5 months, with a strong 2.4% rise last time. This is another indicator for the strength of the Canadian economy. A rise of 1% is expected this time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Canadian dollar continued to gain against the dollar and reached parity. USD/CAD continued south and reached 0.9977 before retreating up to 1.01 and then closing at 1.0027, lower than last week.

Some lines have been modified since last week’s outlook. The pair currently trades between parity, 1, and last week’s high of 1.01, which is a minor resistance line.

Looking up, the next line of resistance is 1.02, the 2009 low, followed by 1.04, which worked well as a support and resistance line many times in the past. Higher resistance lines are irrelevant now.

Looking down below parity, 0.98 is a minor resistance line, followed by 0.97, which is already a stronger one. Both lines provided support during the previous period that the pair traded below 1.

I continue being bearish on USD/CAD.

Despite the pause in the job market, the loonie enjoys the back of a strong economy, higher oil prices, and an interest rate hike that will come sooner than the American one.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the  forex weekly outlook.
• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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