- US economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates.
- Canada reported a higher-than-expected employment growth.
- The BoC will likely maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% next week.
The USD/CAD weekly forecast predicts a bearish trajectory, with recent US data signaling a potential conclusion to Fed rate hikes. This narrative suggests a probable extension of dollar weakness.
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Ups and downs of USD/CAD
The loonie had a bearish week characterized by dollar weakness and Canadian dollar strength. The dollar fell last week as economic data supported the view that the Fed would soon start cutting rates.
Notably, unemployment claims in the US rose last week, showing less demand in the labor market. At the same time, the core PCE price index showed a decline in inflation, supporting a Fed pivot. Moreover, the dollar declined as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commitment to approach interest rates “carefully.”
Meanwhile, employment data from Canada showed a higher-than-expected figure that supported the Canadian dollar on Friday. Still, the BOC will likely leave rates unchanged next week.
Next week’s key events for USD/CAD
Next week, the Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting, where investors expect a hold on interest rates. In a recent speech, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that with excess demand gone and anticipated weak growth, interest rates might be sufficiently restrictive.
This has led to the widespread conclusion that the central bank has ceased hiking rates. The BoC will maintain its main policy rate at 5.0% until at least the end of March, aligning with expectations for the US Federal Reserve.
Another major report next week is the US nonfarm payrolls. The last employment report showed easing in the labor market and supported expectations for Fed rate cuts. Another such report could lead to a more dovish Fed.
USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bullish channel cracks under pressure
On the charts, USD/CAD has broken out of its bullish channel, signaling a change in direction. Bulls were stronger than bears in the channel and kept pushing the price back above the 22-SMA.
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At the same time, the RSI mainly traded above 50, supporting bullish momentum. However, this has all changed with a breakout at the channel support. Bears are now in control, and the RSI has dipped into bearish territory.
Moreover, the price has pushed far below the 22-SMA, supporting bears. Next week, the price will likely fall to the 1.3400 support level. However, it might pull back to retest the recently broken 1.3650 key level before continuing lower.
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Saqib Iqbal
