USD/CHF Outlook Aug. 20-24

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USD/CHF showed very little movement last week, as the pair closed at 0.9735. The upcoming week is very quiet, with only one release. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

Swiss and US releases last week were mixed, and this was reflected in narrow range trading by USD/CHF.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. The Trade Balance surplus narrowed in July, and another drop is expected in the August

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9783, and dropped to low of 0.9697. The pair then pushed upwards, touching a high of 0.9799, and closed the week at 0.9735, as the support line of 0.9719 (discussed last week) held firm.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 1.0216, a line which has held firm since September 2010. This is followed by resistance at 1.0136. Next is the resistance line at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010. This is followed by parity, which continues to provide strong resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915. Below is 0.9783, which was briefly breached as the dollar improved, but continues to provide weak resistance. Look for this line to be further tested if the Swiss franc weakens.

There is weak support at 0.9719, which was breached as the pair moved downwards before retracing. Next is 0.9584, which has held firm since July. Next, there is support is at 0.9510. This is followed by support at 0.9412, which was last tested in May.

Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since mid-May. This is followed by support at 0.9250. Further support can be found at 0.9182, which was last tested in early May. The final support level for now is 0.9093, which has held firm since April.

I am neutral on USD/CHF.

Given the troubles in Europe and mixed releases out of the US, USD/CHF may well continue its narrow range trading. This could change if the Federal Reserve intervenes, but such a move remains unlikely unless the US economy takes a sudden turn for the worse.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.