Category: Weekly Forex Forecasts

Subdued Price Action as Fed Week Kicks Off

After a quiet week where market participants digested the previous weeks’ employment data in the US, along with fresh accommodating monetary policy measures from the ECB, economic and political event risks pushes its way to the forefront of investors’ minds as the calendar heats up again. The conclusion of the FOMC’s two day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday is of significant importance for the investment community and the direction of the big dollar, with expectations the hawkish camp of the FOMC will get to spread its wings a tad more than has been illustrated in the past.  While the continuing trimming of the Fed’s asset purchases is very much assured, the more important areas of focus will be the FOMC’s updated economic projections, along with Yellen’s subsequent press conference.  There is upside risk for the USD should the Fed’s dot charts becomes more optimistic in terms of the economic recovery and thus brings interest rate expectations forward, along with potentially seeing a change in forward guidance with the hawks hoping to drop the reference to rates remaining low for a “considerable time” after QE ends.  Though the economic indicators have showed continued improvement of late, acceleration of the labour market has yet to take off, and thus adds some threat Yellen may try to temper any hawkishness in the rate statement during the press conference afterwards.  While we expect continued upward momentum for the USD into the release, we are cautious a good amount of USD strength has been priced into the market leading up to Wednesday’s decision, with the big dollar susceptible to disappointment if dovish troika of Yellen, Dudley, and Fischer dominate communication.

As we get set to kick off the new trading week, S&P futures have managed to make a modest recovery from the overnight lows that transpired in the wake of disappointing August numbers coming out of the Chinese economy.  Industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales all missed expectations and decelerated when compared to the previous month, suggesting a loss in momentum for the Chinese economy after seeing a rebound in Q2.  That challenging part for the investment community is that rhetoric from policy makers has been focused on structural reform as opposed to stimulus to support economic growth, which leaves investors worrisome about global growth should the struggles seen in August be representative of the months to come.  That being said, the Chinese government has been engaging in targeted easing throughout the majority of this year when a priority has been deleveraging, so it’s not clear whether this is another diversion tactic from policy makers and further steps will be taken if growth forecasts appear to be in danger.

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GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

The British pound lost ground early last the week but recovered and posted slight gains over the week. The pair closed the week at 1.6253. It promises to be a busy week, with some key releases as well as the Scottish independence referendum. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. British

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

AUD/USD suffered its worst week in over a year, losing more than 300 points. The pair closed the week slightly above the 0.90 level. The upcoming week is quiet, highlighted by the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian business and consumer confidence indicators softened,

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

The Canadian dollar had its worst week of 2014, as USD/CAD jumped about 200 points, closing close to the 1.11 level. This week’s major releases are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Wholesale Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian housing data was a mix last week, as Building Permits shined, while Housing

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/JPY Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/JPY is taking in the view at 6-year highs, as the yen shed over 200 points last week. The pair closed on Friday above the 107 level. The upcoming week is a quiet one, with only four events on the calendar. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY. Japanese

EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

EUR/USD dived to lower levels, but it was certainly not a one way street. Has it bottomed out? The big events coming up are a German survey and final inflation data for August. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on lower ground. The echoes from

NZD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

NZD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

The New Zealand dollar was under the heavy hand of the US dollar once again, reaching new lows and even falling below the slippery downtrend support line. The major event of the week is the release of quarterly GDP. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. The US dollar dominated another week, shrugging

USD/CHF closing on a rejection candle formation

USD/CHF closing on a rejection candle formation

USDCHF: With USDCHF closing on a rejection candle formation (shooting star), it faces the risk of a pullback in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9400 level where a break will aim at the 0.9450 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9500 level. A breather may occur here and turn

Forex Weekly Outlook September 15-19

Forex Weekly Outlook September 15-19

The dollar was king once again, but some currencies such as the euro fared better than the commodity currencies. The Fed decision and the Scottish Independence Vote stand out as the key events in a week that also consists of other important releases, and promises to be very interesting. Check out these events on our weekly

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD posted small gains over the week, closing at 0.9366. This week’s key releases are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases met expectations for the most part, and the RBA didn’t adjust rates but took a swipe at the high