Category: GBP USD Forecast

GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 1-5



The British pound remained on low ground, licking its wounds. The new month offers a very busy calendar, with the rate decision and PMIs standing out. Can cable recover? Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

BBA mortgage approvals dropped to 42.8K, below expectations while CBI realized sales rose beyond predictions. In the US, growth came out better than expected and other indicators were mostly positive. The pound eventually surrendered to the greenback’s strength.  The focus now shifts to the UK.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD September 1 5 2014 technical analysis fundamental outlook and sentiment for currency trading forex British pound

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The UK’s manufacturing sector is growing at a much slower pace, according to Markit. In July, the score stood on 55.4 points. For the month of August, a similar number is expected: 55.1. The manufacturing sector is small, but still important.
  2. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 8:30. The BOE’s report regarding lending showed a net value of 2.5 billion pounds in June, lower than in May. Another slide is likely now, to 2.4 billion. More lending usually results in more spending.
  3. M4 Money Supply: Monday, 8:30. The total value of money in circulation has grown by 0.1% in June. A stronger growth is likely now: 0.5%. The figure might be overshadowed by the other figures released at the same time.
  4. Mortgage Approvals: Monday, 8:30. Official mortgage approvals surprised by rising to 67K in June, bucking the trend of falls seen in previous months. A renewed slide is likely now, back down to 66K.
  5. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The construction sector is still growing very fast. The score has been above the 60 point mark since November last year, reflecting accelerated activity in this sector. From 62.4 points seen in July, we might see a fall this time. Expectations stand at 61.5 points.
  6. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The independent measure of inflation at shops has shows year over year declines, contrary to the wider inflation picture. A drop of 1.9% seen in July will likely be followed by a more moderate drop now.
  7. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30.  The last PMI is the most important one as it refers to the UK’s largest sector. Markit surprised with a strong score in July: 59.1 points and this was certainly encouraging. Can the momentum continue? Markets are more cautious and a drop to 58.6 is predicted in this key indicator.
  8. Rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and the AFP program at 375 billion pounds. While two members have already voted for a rate hike, the rest of the MPC remains wary of hitting the recovery too early. As no statement is released when a change is not announced, the real drama will awaits us in the meeting minutes. However, as a hike is getting closer, we might get much more volatility than in previous months.
  9. Consumer Inflation Expectations:  Friday, 8:30. This official measure of 12 month expectations has been sliding recently, falling from over 3% to 2.6% in previous quarter. Another slide is expected now, as the survey has been conducted while the pound has been stronger and import prices have been lower.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD started the week with a Sunday gap down to 1.6535, a line that it challenged once again later in the week. It then recovered and marked a top at 1.6615 before settling lower.

Live chart of GBP/USD:

 


Technical lines from top to bottom

1.6920 was a swing low in June and resistance in May. Below this high level, 1.6810 served as support in July.

1.6740 capped the pair on a recovery attempt in August and is high resistance now. 1.6660 was a swing low in April and also in August.

1.6615 is the top of the current range after capping it in August. The bottom of the range is at 1.6535, which is key support.

Below, we have 1.6465, which was the bottom in March. Further below, 1.64 had a role as resistance in the past and is now weak support.

1.6310 was a cushion during January. The last line for now is 1.6250, the low seen in February.

I am bullish on GBP/USD.

After around two months of falls, cable may have found a bottom. This week’s key figures are set to remind us that the state of the British economy is actually quite good and that the BOE will likely raise rates before the Fed does.

But here is another opinion: GBP/USD Carries Continued Downside Risk

Listen to a preview of September’s big events in the latest episode of Market Movers:

Download it directly here.

Further reading:

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