Category: GBP USD Forecast

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 23-27



The British pound was unchanged last week, as GBP/USD closed at 1.5382. This week’s highlight is Second Estimate GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British inflation levels continues to point downwards, as CPI dipped to just 0.3% in the January report. There was better news from employment data, as Claimant Count Change posted a sharp drop of 38.6 thousand. In the US, the Fed minutes limited dollar gains, as policymakers raised concerns that a rate hike might hurt the US recovery. Unemployment claims dropped sharply, but manufacturing numbers disappointed.

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD_Forecast Feb. 23-27

  1. CBI Realized Sales: Monday, 11:00. This indicator is an important indicator of consumer spending, a key component of economic growth.  The indicator slipped to 39 points in January but this beat the forecast of 31 points. The estimate for the February reading stands at 42 points.
  2. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Wednesday, 9:30. This indicator is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. In December, the indicator dropped slightly to 35.7 thousand, within expectations. Little change is expected in the January reading, with an estimate of 36.2 thousand.
  3. Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 26th-28th. Nationwide HPI measures inflation in the UK housing sector. The indicator has been steady and posted a gain of 0.3% in the previous reading.
  4. Second Estimate GDP: Thursday, 9:30. GDP is one of the most important economic events and can have a strong effect on the movement of GBP/USD. Preliminary GDP in Q3 posted a gain of 0.5%, and the Second Estimate GDP is expected to post an identical gain.
  5. Preliminary Business Investment: Thursday, 9:30. This indicator is released every quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The indicator posted a decline of 0.7%, its worst reading in six quarters. This was well short of the forecast of a 2.3% gain. The estimate for Q4 stands at 2.3%.
  6. GfK Consumer Confidence: Friday, 00:05. GfK Consumer Confidence has been struggling, posting four straight declines before the January reading of 1 point. The markets are expecting an improvement in the February report, with an estimate of 3 points.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5402 and dropped to a low of 1.5316, as support held firm at 1.5290 (discussed last week). The pair then rebounded sharply, climbing to a high of 1.5480. GBP/USD lost ground late in the week, closing at 1.5382.

Live chart of GBP/USD:




Technical lines from top to bottom

We begin with resistance at 1.5625, which has held firm since late December.

1.5539 is the next resistance line.

1.5416 was tested late in the week but remains a weak resistance line. This line provided important support in June 2013, at which time the pound broke through and continued to slide and fell below the 1.49 line.

1.5290 held firm in support as the pair dropped close to the 1.53 line early in the week.

1.5114 is a strong support level.

1.5008 is protecting the symbolic 1.50 level.

1.4813 is the final support line for now. It marked the start of a pound rally in July 2013 that saw GBP/USD climb above 1.61.

I am neutral on GBP/USD.

British GDP will have a large say in the pound’s fortunes this week. If the key indicator can meet expectations, we could see the pound push higher. In the US, recent numbers have been lukewarm of late, but the markets continue to bank on a rate hike sometime in 2015.

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Further reading:

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 16-20

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 16-20

The British pound posted its third straight weekly gain, as GBP/USD gained about 150 points last week. The pair closed at 1.5383. This week’s highlights are CPI and Claimant Count Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The pound posted strong gains on the BOE inflation report, which said

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 9-13

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 9-13

The British pound gained about 150 points last week, closing at 1.5232. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Production and the BOE Inflation Report. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. UK PMIs all improved in January, boosting GBP/USD. As expected, the BOE made no changes to

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 2-6

GBP/USD Forecast Feb. 2-6

The British pound showed strong gains but couldn’t consolidate, as GBP/USD settled for slight gains and closed at 1.5048. This was the first time the pair has slipped below this symbolic level since July 2013. This week’s highlights are the PMI reports. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Jan.  26-30 2015

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 26-30 2015

The British pound sustained sharp losses last week, as GBP/USD closed the week below the 1.50 level. This was the first time the pair has slipped below this symbolic level since July 2013. This week’s major event is Preliminary GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Forecast January 19-23 2015

GBP/USD Forecast January 19-23 2015

The British pound showed strong movement in both directions, but GBP/USD closed the week almost unchanged. The pair closed at 1.5150. This week’s major events are Claimant Change and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. Inflation levels continued to drop in December,

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

GBP/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

The British pound continues to slide, as GBP/USD fell for a fourth straight week. The pair lost about 140 points, closing at 1.5146. The pound is now at its lowest level since July 2013. This week’s major event is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The health of the UK

GBP/USD Forecast January 5-9 2015

GBP/USD Forecast January 5-9 2015

The British pound tumbled on Friday, losing 240 points to the US dollar. The pair closed the week at 1.5314, its lowest level since August 2014. This week’s highlights are PMIs and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The pound plunged on Friday, as Manufacturing PMI missed expectations and

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

The British pound continued its downward trend last week, as GBP/USD lost about 80 points last week. The pair closed the week at 1.5617. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. In the US, the final read of GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 22-26

GBP/USD Forecast Dec. 22-26

The British pound had a tough week, as GBP/USD lost about 100 points. The pair closed the week at 1.5617. The upcoming week is very quiet, highlighted by Current Account. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. Last week’s highlight was the highly-anticipated Federal Reserve policy statement. Market analysts noted