GBP/USD Outlook January 30 – February 3
The British pound had another stellar week, climbing almost 200 pips against the US dollar, and breaking the 1.57 level. The upcoming week has seven releases, including GDP. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The dollar weakened against most major currencies following Bernanke’s announcement that interest rates will likely remain near zero until late 2014. This was despite solid economic data coming out of the US.
Updates: Cable retread a bit and fell below 1.57 as fears gripped Europe again. British net lending to individuals squeezed to 0.4 billion ahead of more important data during the week. Troubles around Greece’s PSI deal weigh on cable once again. See how to trade the British manufacturing PMI with GBP/USD. Britain enjoyed a very strong manufacturing PMI. At 52.1, Britain might escape a second quarter of contraction and can see a delay in QE3. GBP/USD leaped above 1.58 and reached 1.5858 before easing.
GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- GfK Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 00:01. This important consumer indicator was deep in negative territory throughout 2011, and the last reading came in at -31. The markets are not predicting much movement for this month.
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Net Lending to Individuals: Tuesday, 09:30. This indicator is useful for measuring consumer confidence, as consumers often take out loans for big-ticket purchases. The previous reading came in at 1.0B, exactly as predicted by the markets. The forecast for January calls for little change, with a prediction of 1.2B.
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Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 07:00. This indicator provides important data about inflation in the housing sector. The indicator contracted last month by 0.2%, its lowest reading since September 2011. The markets are predicting no change for this month’s reading.
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Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 9:30. This indicator is bassed on a survey of purchasing managers, who are asked to rate business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The indicator has recorded a modest rise since October 2011, although it is still below the critical 50 level. The markets are forecasting a slight increase for the January reading, to 50.3. Will the indicator push into positive territory this month?
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Construction PMI: Thursday, 09:30. This diffusion index is gives an important snapshot of acitivity in the construction industry. The index stayed slightly above the 50 level throughout 2011, indicating modest growth in the sector. Little change is predicted for the reading this month.
- Halifax HPI: Friday, publication time tentative. This index meausures inflation in the important housing sector. The last two readings showed a decrease in inflation of -0.9%, and it is unlikely that we will see any significant change in these figures in the January release.
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Services PMI: Friday, 9:30. This indicator is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the service sector. The previous reading came in at 54.0, and little change is expected this month.
* All times are GMT.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
Pound/dollar started the week at 1.5543. After touching a low of 1.5517, it climbed sharply to a high of 1.5740, breaking through the strong resistance line of 1.5629 (discussed last week) and closed the week at an impressive 1.5723.
Technical levels from top to bottom
Resistance levels are quickly shattering as GBP/USD moves up higher and higher. We begin with the line of 1.6365, a level of strong resistance. This is followed by the line of 1.6265, which was last tested in August of 2011. Next, 1.6132 has provided strong resistance since November. Below, there is resistance line of 1.6065. This is followed by strong resistance at the psychologically important figure of 1.60. The line of 1.59 acted as a support line back in October 2011, but is now in a resistance role. This is followed by 1.5775, a resistance line which was repeatedly tested last month. The round number of 1.57 was a weak resistance line, and was breached again last week.
The round number of 1.55 continues to provide weak support to the surging pound. Next, 1.5469 has been a weak line for much of January, and is currently in a support role. The round number of 1.54, which served as strong support in November and December of 2011, is again providing support to the pair. Below, 1.5360 is a weak support level. There is further weak support at 1.5279. Next there is support at the round number of 1.52, followed by the strong support at 1.5120. The final line for now the psychologically important level of 1.50.
I remain neutral on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD had another banner week, even though economic fundamentals clearly favor the US over the UK. Traders may feel confident jumping on the pound bandwagon, but a correction to the surging pound may not be far off.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
