Category: GBP USD Forecast

GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 17-21



The British pound lost over 200 points last week, closing at 1.5658. This is the GBP/USD’s lowest level since September 2013. This week’s key events are Retail Sales and Preliminary GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

US employment numbers disappointed last week, as jobless claims missed expectations and JOLTS softened. Still, there was a silver lining as the number of quits is back to pre-crisis levels, which shows that people are confident to switch jobs. Confidence is also apparent in the highest consumer confidence since 2007 and an improvement in retail sales. In the UK, the BoE said in its inflation report that inflation levels would remain low, and the pound responded with sharp losses.

Updates:

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it.

GBPUSDForecast Nov.17-21.

  1. Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. This housing inflation index provides a snapshot of the amount of activity in the UK housing sector. The index posted a strong gain of 2.9% in the previous reading.
  2. CPI: Tuesday, 9:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation and should be treated as a market-mover by traders. The index has been steadily weakening and dipped to 1.2% in the September release, its lowest reading in five years. No change is expected in the upcoming reading.
  3. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. This indicator looks at inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index continues to post declines and the downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of -1.4% in the October release.
  4. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30. RPI includes housing starts, which are not included in CPI. The index has softened slightly in recent readings and came in at 2.3% in the previous reading. No change is expected in the October reading.
  5. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. Analysts closely monitor the voting breakdown of the MPC vote on QE, which is expected to be a unanimous 9-0 decision. A non-unanimous vote indicates some dissension by policymakers as to the desirable QE level.
  6. MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: Wednesday, 9:30. The previous vote was 7-2, with 2 members favoring a hike in rates while the majority were in favor of maintaining interest rates at 0.50%. The markets are anticipating another 7-2 vote and a different result could affect the movement of GBP/USD.
  7. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales is the most important consumer spending indicator, and can have a significant effect on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator posted a decline of 0.3%, missing the estimate of a 0.1% decline. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround, with the estimate standing at 0.4%.
  8. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 11:00. The indicator has posted two straight declines, pointing to pessimism about the manufacturing sector. Another decline is expected, with an estimate of -3 points.
  9. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 9:00. The indicator has posted two straight deficits, both of which were larger than the estimate. The markets are expecting better news from the October reading, with the deficit expected to narrow to GBP 6.9 billion pounds.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5881 and quickly touched a high of 1.5952. The pair then dropped all the way to 1.5592, testing support at 1.5625 (discussed last week). GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5658.

Live chart of GBP/USD:




Technical lines from top to bottom

With GBP/USD losing ground last week, we start at lower levels:

1.6131 strengthened as a resistance as the pound dropped sharply.

1.6006 is next. This line is just above the psychologically important 1.60 level.

1.5909 was easily breached by the pair and has switched to a resistance role. This line had held firm since November 2013.

Next is 1.5746, which has also switched to resistance. This line was an important support level in January 2013.

1.5625 is an immediate support line. It was tested by the pair, which briefly broke into 1.55 territory.

1.5539 has held firm since August 2013.

1.5290 was a cushion in July 2013. It is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

US numbers remain strong, led by solid consumer spending and confidence numbers. The UK economy has slowed down, and weak inflation levels means that the BoE could delay an interest rate hike.

In our latest podcast, we dive into Australia, analyze the US jobs picture, talk about the punished pound and discuss the collapsing yen:

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Further reading:

GBP/USD Forecast November 10-14

GBP/USD Forecast November 10-14

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GBP/USD Forecast Oct. 13-17

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GBP/USD Forecast Oct. 6-10

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GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 29-Oct. 3

GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 29-Oct. 3

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GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 22-26

GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 22-26

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GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

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