Category: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 26-30



The Canadian dollar was in free-fall lost week, falling a remarkable 450 points. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2411, its highest level since April 2009. This week’s sole release is GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The loonie tumbled after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut rates to 0.75%. Manufacturing and CPI numbers were weak, but retail sales beat the estimate. In the US, In the US, Unemployment Claims disappointed and Existing Home Sales missed expectations.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCAD_Forecast Jan.26-30.

  1. GDP: Friday, 13:30. GDP is one of the most important indicators and should be treated by traders as a market-mover. Canadian GDP is released every month, unlike most other industrialized countries, which publish GDP each quarter. The November reading posted a gain of 0.3%, better than the forecast of 0.1%. However, the markets are expecting a decline of 0.1% for December. If the indicator fails to post a gain, we could see the wobbly Canadian dollar fall even lower.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1971 and quickly touched a low of 1.1935. The pair then sharply reversed directions and pushed above the 1.24 line, hitting a high of 1.2457. USD/CAD closed the week at the 1.2411, breaking past resistance at 1.2387 (discussed last week).

Live chart of USD/CAD:


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

With the Canadian dollar recording huge losses, we start at higher levels:

1.2711 has been a cap since June 2005.

1.2541 is the next resistance line.

1.2387 was an important cap back in May 2005. It is a weak support level and could see action early in the week.

1.2128 had been a resistance line since February 2009, but has switched to a support role following the sharp gains by USD/CAD.

1.1975 is the final support line for now. It had been protecting the symbolic 1.20 level until last week but has also switched to a support role.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar took a licking last week, and with the currency markets showing strong volatility, could continue to lose ground, especially if GBP contracts. We’ll hear from the Fed next week, and any hints about the timing of an interest rate hike could result in broad gains for the US dollar.

In our latest podcast, we do an ECB QE rundown, SNBomb effect on brokers, surprise cut in Canada & Iranian oil:

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Further reading:

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 19-23 2015

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 19-23 2015

The Canadian dollar lost over 100 points last week, as USD/CAD tested the 1.20 line. This was its highest level since May 2009. The pair closed the week at 1.1975. There are 8 events this week, highlighted by Core Retail Sales and Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

The Canadian dollar continued to lose ground last week. USD/CAD approached the 1.19 line, its highest level since May 2009. This week’s sole release is the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The tale of two economies continues, as the US economy outperforms its northern

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 5-9 2015

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 5-9 2015

The Canadian dollar enjoyed a quiet week until Friday, when USD/CAD jumped 150 points. The pair closed at 1.1772, its highest level since May 2009. This week’s highlights are Building Permits and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. There were no Canadian releases last week, so US events took on

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

The Canadian dollar was unchanged last week, as USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1615. There are no Canadian releases in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, key releases painted a mixed picture. The final read of GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of 5% annualized

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 22-26

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 22-26

The Canadian dollar lost ground early in the week but ended the week almost unchanged.  USD/CAD closed the week just above the 1.16 line. It’s a very quiet week leading to the Christmas holiday, with just one release, GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Fed released an eagerly-awaited policy statement

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 15-19

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 15-19

The Canadian dollar resumed its losing ways, dropping over 100 points last week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1580, its highest level since July 2009. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US dollar pushed higher against the loonie, responding to

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 8-12

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 8-12

The Canadian dollar showed strong gains early in the week but was unable to consolidate and ended the week almost unchanged. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1423. This week’s highlight is Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls report was outstanding with a 321K job gain

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 1-5

USD/CAD Forecast Dec. 1-5

The Canadian dollar suffered sharp losses last week, slipping about 170 points alongside the crash in oil prices and despite good data at home. USD/CAD climbed above the 1.14 line for the first time since July 2009 and closed at 1.1402. The upcoming week is  a busy one, with five key events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 24-28

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 24-28

The Canadian dollar showed some movement in both directions but was little changed at week’s end. USD/CAD posted slight losses, closing the week at 1.1231. This week’s highlights are Retail Sales and GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Wholesale Sales impressed with a sharp gain in September.