Category: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Forecast June 29 – July 3



It was another uneventful week for the Canadian dollar as USD/CAD was unchanged. The pair closed the week at the 1.23 line. The upcoming week has just two events, but the GDP release could have a strong effect on the movement of USD/CAD.  Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

In the US housing numbers were strong, and the week ended with excellent consumer sentiment data. Still, US Final GDP declined by 0.2%, matching the forecast. There were no Canadian economic releases last week.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USD_CAD_Forecast.Jun29-July3

  1. RMPI: Monday, 12:30. RMPI is the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index tends to show a lot of volatility, often leading to readings that are well off the estimates. In April, the indicator bounced back with a sharp gain of 3.8%, easily beating the forecast of 1.7%. Will the indicator repeat with another strong release?
  2. GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. GDP is one of the most important economic indicators, and traders should treat it as a market-mover. Canada releases GDP on a monthly basis, unlike most other developed economies which publish the indicator each quarter. The indicator has struggled, posting just one gain in 2014. The indicator declined by 0.2% in March, shy of the estimate of +0.2%. The markets are expecting better news in the April report, with an estimate of +0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2275 and quickly dropped to a low of 1.2218, testing support at 1.2230 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 1.2423. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2300.

Live chart of USD/CAD:


Technical lines, from top to bottom

1.2798 has remained intact since mid-March.

1.2646 is the next resistance line.

1.2541 has provided an important cap in June.

1.2386 remains an immediate support level.

1.2230 was tested in support for a second straight week as USD/CAD softened early in the week before recovering.

1.2114 is a strong support level.

1.1995 is situated just below the symbolic 1.20 level. This line has remained intact since mid-May.

1.1873 is the final support level for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The FOMC may be slightly more hawkish than perceived, as a Fed policymaker spoke of one or even two rate hikes in 2015. If there are further hints about a rate hike, the greenback could jump higher. Over in Canada, GDP has struggled, and a weaker than expected reading could hurt the loonie.

In our latest podcast, we discuss building on the US recovery, the Greek crisis and EUR, Saudi solar and next week’s events.

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Further reading:

USD/CAD Forecast June 22-26

USD/CAD Forecast June 22-26

The Canadian dollar had an uneventful week, as USD/CAD posted slight losses. The pair closed the week at 1.2259. The upcoming week is very quiet, with only one release this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, the news was mixed as inflation slipped, while employment

USD/CAD Forecast June 15-19

USD/CAD Forecast June 15-19

The Canadian dollar enjoyed an excellent week, as USD/CAD dropped about 140 points. There are 7 events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, data was generally upbeat, but traders were hesitant to buy the greenback ahead of the Fed Statement. In Canada, Building Permits

USD/CAD Forecast June 8-12

USD/CAD Forecast June 8-12

USD/CAD showed little change last week, closing at 1.2427. This week’s major event is Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, an excellent gain in jobs helped the US dollar posts gains late in week against its Canadian counterpart. North of the border, an outstanding Canadian Employment

USD/CAD Forecast June 1-5

USD/CAD Forecast June 1-5

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USD/CAD Forecast May 25-29

USD/CAD Forecast May 25-29

USD/CAD rebounded strongly last week, gaining close to 200 points. The pair closed the week just shy of the 1.22 line. This week’s major events are the overnight rate and GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US continues to release lukewarm numbers, but the FOMC minutes were optimistic

USD/CAD Forecast May 18-22

USD/CAD Forecast May 18-22

USD/CAD lost about 100 points, closing the week below the 1.20 level for the first time since mid-January. The pair closed the week at 1.1992. This week’s major events are Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar took advantage of weak US retail sales

USD/CAD Forecast May 11-15

USD/CAD Forecast May 11-15

The Canadian dollar took advantage of a broadly weaker US dollar and gained over 100 points last week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2053. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar took advantage of strong Canadian data, as Building Permits and unemployment numbers

USD/CAD Forecast May 4-8

USD/CAD Forecast May 4-8

The Canadian dollar showed some strength during the week breaking below the 1.20 level for the first time since mid-January. However, the loonie failed to consolidate at these levels and posted very slight gains on the week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2136. This week’s major highlights are Building Permits and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on

USD/CAD Forecast Apr. 27 – May 1

USD/CAD Forecast Apr. 27 – May 1

The Canadian dollar had a quiet week, posting slight losses. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2167. This week’s major highlight is GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, there was some good news on the housing front, with existing home sales beating expectations. However, New Home Sales