Category: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 17-21



The Canadian dollar posted modest gains last week, as USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1286. This week’s highlights are Wholesale Sales and Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US employment numbers were not impressive last week, as jobless claims missed expectations and JOLTS softened. Still, there was a silver lining as the number of quits is back to pre-crisis levels, which shows that people are confident to switch jobs. Confidence is also apparent in the highest consumer confidence since 2007 and an improvement in retail sales. The Canadian dollar got a boost as Manufacturing Sales posted a strong gain.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCADForecast Nov.17-21

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Monday, 13:30. The indicator improved to CAD $10.28B for September, well above the estimate of CAD $4.31 billion. The markets are expecting the indicator to continue to move upwards, with a forecast of CAD $11.32B.
  2. BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote Speaks: Tuesday, 19:05. Cote will speak at an event in Calgary, Alberta. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Canadian dollar.
  3. Wholesale Sales: Thursday, 13:30. Wholesale Sales improved in September to 0.2%, up from -0.3% in the previous release. The markets are expecting a strong October reading, with an estimate of 0.7%.
  4. Core CPI: Friday, 13:30. Core CPI excludes the most volatile items which make up CPI, making Core CPI a more accurate indicator. The index slipped to 0.2% in October, down from 0.5% a month earlier. No change is expected in the upcoming release.
  5. CPI: Friday, 13:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation. The index has not looked strong in recent releases, and posted a weak gain of 0.1% in October. The markets are braced for a decline in the upcoming release, with an estimate of -0.3%.

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1329 and quickly climbed to a high of 1.1401. The pair then reversed directions and fell to a low of 1.1263, breaking below support at 1.1271 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1286.

Live chart of USD/CAD:


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 117.52. This lined marked the start of a rally by the Canadian dollar in February 2007, which saw USD/CAD drop below parity. 1.1640 is next.

1.1494 had no trouble this week. was a key resistance line in November 2006.

1.1333 was tested by the pair for a second straight week. It is an immediate resistance line and could see action early in the week.

1.1271 is a weak support line. It was tesetd

1.1122 marks the low point of a US dollar rally which started late in October and saw USD/CAD climb above 1.14 last week.

1.1054 remains a strong support line. 1.0944 is next.

1.0815 has held firm since late August. It is the final support line for now.

I am neutral on USD/CAD

US numbers remain strong, led by solid consumer spending and confidence numbers. A stronger US economy is good news for Canada,which relies heavily on its southern neighbor. As well, recent Canadian numbers have looked solid, led by impressive employment numbers.

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Further reading:

USD/CAD Forecast November 10-14

USD/CAD Forecast November 10-14

The Canadian dollar broke above the 1.14 line but recovered and showed little change on the week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1326. This week’s key release is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. US Nonfarm Payrolls slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235

USD/CAD Forecast November 3-7

USD/CAD Forecast November 3-7

The Canadian dollar was almost unchanged last week, with USD/CAD closing at 1.1254. There are a number of key releases, highlighted by Ivey PMI and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In a symbolic move, the Federal Reserve ended its QE program and issued a hawkish policy statement. GDP looked sharp, pointing

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 27-31

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 27-31

The Canadian dollar had showed some strength last week, with USD/CAD closing with modest losses. The pair closed the week at 1.1228. This week’s highlights include GDP and an appearance by BoC head Stephen Poloz before a parliamentary committee. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar shrugged off a weak consumer spending data,

USD/CAD Forecast October 20-24

USD/CAD Forecast October 20-24

The Canadian dollar returned to its losing ways last week, as USD/CAD gained about 100 points, closing at 1.1275. This week’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and the Overnight Rate. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US dollar shrugged off weakness in US retail sales and a poor PPI

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 13-17

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 13-17

The Canadian dollar posted weekly gains for the first time in three weeks, as USD/CAD closed slightly below the 1.12 line. This week’s highlights are Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian job data was outstanding, as Employment Claims jumped to their highest level in over a

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 6-10

USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 6-10

The Canadian dollar lost close to a cent last week, as USD/CAD closed above the 1.12 line for the first time since March. This week’s highlights are Building Permits and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canada’s trade balance posted a deficit for the first time in three months.

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 29-Oct. 3

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 29-Oct. 3

The Canadian dollar dropped sharply last week, surrendering about 200 cents against the US dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.1142, its lowest level since March. This week’s highlight is GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Core Retail Sales disappointed, posted its first decline since January. The US economy

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 22-26

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 22-26

The Canadian dollar rebounded last week, gaining over 100 cents against the US dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0962. This week’s highlight is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. US  unemployment claims dropped sharply last week, and the Fed hinted that once rates are raised, subsequent hikes

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

The Canadian dollar had its worst week of 2014, as USD/CAD jumped about 200 points, closing close to the 1.11 level. This week’s major releases are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Wholesale Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian housing data was a mix last week, as Building Permits shined, while Housing