Category: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 30 – Apr. 3



The Canadian dollar showed some strength during the week, but ended the week almost unchanged.  USD/CAD closed just above the 1.26 line. It’s a quiet week, with just three events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

There were no Canadian economic releases last week. In the US, inflation beat expectations and New Home Sales were also stronger than expected. However, durable goods orders and GDP missed their estimates.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDCAD__Forecast Mar. 30-Apr.3

  1. RMPI: Monday, 13:30. The Raw Materials Price Index measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index continues to post declines, but the markets are expecting a strong gain of 5.1% in the February report.
  2. GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. GDP is one of the most important economic indicators and can have a significant impact on the direction of USD/CAD. The January reading came in at 0.3%, within expectations. The estimate for February stands at 0.2%.
  3. Trade Balance: Thursday, 13:30. Trade Balance is closely linked to currency demand, as foreigners must purchase Canadian dollars to buy Canadian goods and services. The indicator was unexpectedly weak in January, with a reading of -$2.5 billion Canadian, well below the estimate of -0.9 billion. The forecast for the February report is -1.8 billion.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2583 and dropped sharply, falling to 1.2410. The pair then reversed directions and touched a high off 1.2621, just shy of resistance at 1.2624 (discussed last week). USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2608.

Live chart of USD/CAD:


Technical lines, from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.3063, the first line above the symbolic line of 1.30.

1.2924 was last tested in March 2009.

1.2798 has strengthened in resistance as the pair posted sharp losses last week.

1.2624 held firm as the pair reached a high of 1.2621.

1.2541 was tested but remains a support level.

1.2387 held firm in support last week as the Canadian dollar showed some strength before retracting.

1.2230 has held firm since mid-January.

1.2114 is the final support line for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The estimates for GDP and Trade Balance are not strong, and this could hurt the loonie. In the US, it seems that the losing streak of poor data is reaching an end, as seen with last week’s New Home Sales and Unemployment Claims.

In our latest podcast we interview David Stein on investment, QE and lots more

[audio mp3="http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.marketmoverspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Market-Movers-March-27.mp3"][/audio]

Subscribe to Market Movers on iTunes

Further reading:

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 23-27

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 23-27

The Canadian dollar rebounded with an excellent week, as USD/CAD plunged about 260 points last week. The pair closed at 1.2549. It’s a quiet week, with just three events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian numbers were dismal, as manufacturing and retail sales posted sharp declines. Still the loonie

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 16-20

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 16-20

USD/CAD continued to push higher last week, as the pair jumped about 170 points. The pair closed at 1.2772, its highest level since March 2009. There are seven events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, unemployment claims were sharp, but inflation and

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 9-13

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 9-13

USD/CAD showed strong gains late on Friday, as the pair was up over 100 points last week. The pair closed at 1.2623. This week’s major event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar started the week with gains, as GDP rebounded with a gain of 0.3% in

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 2-6

USD/CAD Forecast Mar. 2-6

USD/CAD showed movement in both directions but closed the week almost unchanged at the 1.25 line. There are 8 events this week, highlighted by GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. In the US, Janet Yellen’s testimony signaled that a Fed rate hike is not imminent and that wage growth

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 23-27

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 23-27

The Canadian dollar posted modest losses last week, as USD/CAD closed at 1.2528. This week’s highlight is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Wholesale Sales looked sharp, jumping 2.5%. The Fed minutes were dovish in stance, as policymakers raised concerns that a rate hike might hurt the

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 16-20

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 16-20

The Canadian dollar posted modest gains last week, as USD/CAD closed at 1.2446. This week’s highlights are Wholesale Sales and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Manufacturing Sales was unexpectedly strong, posting an excellent gain of 1.7%. Over in the US, it was a rough week for key numbers.

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 9-13

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 9-13

The Canadian dollar posted its first winning week since early December, as USD/CAD gained about 160 points last week. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. USD/CAD showed strong movement last week, and the Canadian dollar finally managed to post a winning week. Canadian

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 2-6

USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 2-6

The Canadian dollar continued its sharp descent, losing close to 300 points last week. USD/CAD has now gained a remarkable 11 cents in the month of January. This week’s highlights are Building Permits and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. It was another week

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 26-30

USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 26-30

The Canadian dollar was in free-fall last week, falling a remarkable 450 points. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2411, its highest level since April 2009. This week’s sole release is GDP. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The loonie tumbled after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut