Category: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 22-26



The Canadian dollar rebounded last week, gaining over 100 cents against the US dollar. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0962. This week’s highlight is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

US  unemployment claims dropped sharply last week, and the Fed hinted that once rates are raised, subsequent hikes could take place more quickly than expected. Still, the Canadian dollar came out on top last week, buoyed by strong manufacturing and inflation numbers.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDJPY Forecast Sep22-26

  1. BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin Speaks: Monday, 17:00. Wilkin will address an event in Toronto. Any remarks which are “out of the ordinary” could affect the movement of USD/CAD.
  2. Core Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. This is the key event of the week. The indicator excludes automobile sales, which are volatile and can distort the overall trend. In July, the indicator surprised with a strong gain of 1.5%, well above the estimate of 0.4%. The markets are expecting a downturn in the upcoming release, with the estimate standing at -0.1%.
  3. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator posted an excellent gain of 1.1% last month, easily  beating the estimate of 0.3%. The estimate for the August release stands at 0.4%. 

* All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.1088. The pair touched a high of 1.1099, as resistance held firm at 1.1122 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, dropping to a low of 1.0886. The Canadian dollar was unable to consolidate at these levels and USD/CAD closed at 1.0962.

Live chart of USD/CAD:


Technical lines, from top to bottom:

With USD/CAD posting strong gains, we begin at higher levels:

1.1494 was a key resistance line in November 2006.

1.1369 was breached in October 2008 as the US dollar posted sharp gains, climbing as high as the 1.21 level. This line has remained steady since July 2009.

1.1278 has provided resistance since March. This line marked the start of a rally by the Canadian dollar, which dropped below the 1.09 level.

 1.1122 held firm as the pair came close to the 1.11 level. This line is weak resistance.

1.1054 was breached by the surging US dollar and starts the week as an immediate support line.

1.0944 has reverted to a support role and is a strong line.

1.0815 had been under pressure but gained some breathing room as the pair trades at higher levels.

1.0737 marked a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0621 marked a low point for the pair in early July.

1.0412 was an important support line in November 2012, when USD/CAD posted a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.12 level. It is the final support level for now.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar recovered nicely last week, but the US dollar has shown broad strength and could rebound this week. The FOMC statement helped the greenback as QE winds up and the guessing game as to the timing of a rate hike begins in earnest.

Further reading:

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 15-19

The Canadian dollar had its worst week of 2014, as USD/CAD jumped about 200 points, closing close to the 1.11 level. This week’s major releases are Manufacturing Sales, Core CPI and Wholesale Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian housing data was a mix last week, as Building Permits shined, while Housing

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 8-12

USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 8-12

USD/CAD showed some movement in both directions, but ended the week unchanged, closing at 1.0877. This week’s highlight is Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Employment Change and Ivey PMI tumbled in August, but the Canadian dollar managed to hold its own last week. In the US,

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 25-29

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 25-29

USD/CAD came close to the 1.10 line, but  then retracted and showed little change over the week. This week’s highlight is GDP. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian inflation remains in the doldrums, as CPI numbers declined in July. On a brighter note, retail sales were excellent. In the US, the economy continues to point

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 18-22

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 18-22

The Canadian dollar improved last week, as USD/CAD closed just below the 1.09 level. This week’s highlights are Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Housing Starts and Manufacturing Sales both beat their estimates, and the Canadian dollar took full advantage.

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 11-15

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 11-15

The Canadian dollar posted modest losses last week, as USD/CAD closed at 1.0971. Will the pair break above the 1.10 level? This week’s highlight is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI were up sharply in July, but any chance of the

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 4-8

USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 4-8

The Canadian dollar continued its losing ways last week.  The currency lost about a cent, as USD/CAD closed the week above the 1.09 line. There are five major releases this week, highlighted by Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian inflation and GDP numbers were solid last week,

USD/CAD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

USD/CAD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

The Canadian dollar sagged on Friday, as USD/CAD pushed above the 1.08 level, closing at 1.0803. On the release front, it’s another quiet week, with only two events. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian retail sales were a mixed bag and had little effect on the pair. In

USD/CAD Forecast July 21-25

USD/CAD Forecast July 21-25

USD/CAD was unchanged at the end of the week, closing at 1.0732. The upcoming week is very quiet, with just two events. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. As expected, the BOC left interest rates at 1.0%. Inflation numbers matched expectations, while Manufacturing Sales and Wholesale Sales both posted strong

USD/CAD Forecast July 14-18

USD/CAD Forecast July 14-18

The Canadian dollar lost close to a cent last week, as USD/CAD broke above the 1.07 line, closing at 1.0732. There are a host of key events in the upcoming week, highlighted by Manufacturing Sales and Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian employment numbers were a big disappointment last