The Canadian dollar couldn’t hold its ground against a rising US dollar, and USD/CAD continued north. GDP and employment figures are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The crisis in Europe is definitely taking its toll. The failed German auction was the highlight of an eventful week. The loonie felt it through falling oil prices as well as the sweeping strength of the US dollar. In Canada, Retail sales edged up in Canada during September, rising well above expectations gaining 1.0%. The strong growth occurred amid elevated automobile purchases overshadowing August 0.6% increase. Meanwhile, Core sales also grew by 0.5% above the 0.4% gain predicted indicating better market conditions. Will this trend continue?
Updates: Hopes for an IMF program for Italy and rising oil prices help the loonie advance and retrace some of last week’s losses. The distinct 1.03 line provides support. After 1.03 was broken to the downside, 1.0263 provided a cushion. The decision to cut US dollar swap rates by 50bp triggered a rally that sent USD/CAD down to 1.0125 before bouncing back to 1.02. The rise of oil prices above $100 also helped. Canada suffered another month of job losses, and this stopped the fall of USD/CAD.
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Current Account: Tuesday, 13:30. Canadian current account deficit widens in the second quarter as imports rise and global demand weakens. The deficit inflated to C$15.33 billion from a revised C$10.07 billion in the first quarter. Markets had expected a shortfall of C$13.6 billion. Economists expected a lower deficit of C$13.6 billion. Deficit is expected to narrow to 11.3 billion.
- John Murray speaks: Wednesday, 0:30. John Murray, Deputy Governor of the BOC is scheduled to speak at the State University of New York Media briefing will be released after the speech. His words convey clues on future monetary policy.
- GDP : Wednesday, 13:30. The Canadian economy continued to expand in August rising 0.3% after 0.4% growth in July and above the 0.2% rise estimated. This is a positive figure in light of the global slowdown. However in case theUS slowdown will continue Canadian deficit will rise.A smaller growth rate of 0.2% is forecasted.
- RMPI : Wednesday, 13:30. The raw materials price index increased 1.4% despite a 2.3% drop forecasted and following 3.2% decline in the previous month. The increase was caused by higher crude oil prices. Meantime the Canadian producer prices edged up 0.4% well above the 0.1% predicted and following 0.4% gain in the preceding month. RMPI is expected to increase by 1.5% while IPPI is expected to grow 0.3%.
- Employment data: Friday. 12:00. A disappointing reading of 54,000 Job losses pushed unemployment rate higher in October amid a slowdown in the US and the European debt crisis. This trend will prevent the BOC from raising rates and may even force them to drop rates. An addition of 17,200 jobs is forecasted with the same unemployment rate of 7.3%.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD struggled under the 1.03 line (mentioned last week). Once it broke higher, there was no looking back. The pair continued higher and marked a new support line at 1.0440.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We begin even higher this week: 1.0850 was a swing many times in recent years, and is the final frontier before 1.10. 1.0750 was the top border of a long running range.
1.0677 is a veteran and distinct resistance line, which worked well in October and also in the past and remains of high importance. 1.0550 is a minor line on the way up.
1.0500 is another minor line of resistance. It was a pivotal around the same time and was a point of resistance before the pair fell. 1.0440 joins the chart after providing support once the pair hit high ground.
1.0360 capped the pair in September and October and also provided support. The round number of 1.03 was the peak of a move upwards seen in November.
1.0263 is the peak of recent surges during October and also November but has a weaker role now. The round figure of 1.02 was a cushion when the pair dropped in November, and also the 2009 trough.
1.0143 was a swing low in September and worked as resistance in the past. It capped a small recovery attempt in November. 1.0060 worked as support in November and had the opposite role back in 2010. It worked as a great cushion for the pair in November.
The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.
I am bullish on USD/CAD.
The crisis in Europe still hasn’t fully materialized in currencies. Despite relative stability in Canada and its main trade partner, the US, these external forces remain stronger. After breaching many resistance lines in a gradual manner, the road is paved for higher ground.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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