EUR/USD Forecast Dec. 30-Jan. 3 – Euro Climbs Above 1.11

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EUR/USD posted strong gains late in the week and gained close to one percent on the week. There are five events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
There were no major German or eurozone events in the holiday-shortened week. The euro took advantage of weakness in the U.S. dollar and posted strong gains.
In the U.S., durable goods disappointed. The headline release declined 2.0% in November, compared to a gain of 0.6% a month earlier. This was shy of the estimate of +0.2%. The core release, which excludes volatile items such as aircraft orders, slowed to 0.0%, down from 0.6% in October. This figure was well off the estimate of a 1.5% gain. The weak durables reports indicate that the manufacturing sector is showing signs of weakness. On the employment front, unemployment claims dropped sharply for a second straight week, to 222 thousand. This matched the estimate.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Spanish CPI: Monday, 8:00. CPI in the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy improved to 0.4% in October, up from 0.2% a month earlier. The upswing is expected to continue in November, with an estimate of 0.9 percent.
  2. Manufacturing PMIs: Monday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German one at 8:55, and final euro-zone number at 9:00. These final PMI readings are expected to confirm in the initial releases in late December. Spain’s manufacturing sector has been in contraction mode for the past six months, and the trend is expected to continue in December, with an estimate of 46.8 pts. In Italy, the manufacturing sector has been in decline for over a year and the forecast for the upcoming release is 47.6 pts. The German indicator is expected to dip to 43.8 and the eurozone PMI is projected to fall to 45.9 pts. The French PMI is expected to drop to 50.3, compared to 51.7 in November.
  3. German Preliminary CPI: Friday, All Day. German CPI posted a sharp decline of 0.8% in November. Inflation is expected to rebound, with an estimate of 0.4% for the initial December release.
  4. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:55. German unemployment rolls fell by 16 thousand in October, which was the sharpest decline in nine months. Unemployment rolls are expected to climb by four thousand in November.
  5. Monetary Data: Friday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply rose to 5.6% in October, up from 5.5% a month earlier. The estimate for November stands at 5.7%. Private Loans climbed to 3.5% in October, up from 3.4% a month earlier. The forecast for the November release is 3.6%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1515, which was a high point at the end of January.

1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 has held firm in resistance since June. This is followed by 1.1345.

1.1290 was last tested in early July. 1.1215 is next.

1.1119 remains relevant. It is under pressure in resistance.

1.1025 (mentioned last week) is protecting the symbolic 1.10 level. 1.0925 is next.

1.0829 has held in support since April 2017. It is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The U.S. economy is performing much better than that of the eurozone, which should translate into gains for the greenback. The German locomotive has been sputtering, as German the export and manufacturing sectors have slowed due to weak global demand.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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