EUR/USD Forecast February 24-28 -Euro Dips to Lowest Level Since April 2017

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After sharp declines for two straight weeks, EUR/USD paused and had a quiet week. There are six events in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
German ZEW Economic Sentiment shocked investors, sliding to 8.7 points in February. This was down from 26.7 a month earlier and missed the forecast of 20.0 points. It was the same story with the all-eurozone release, which fell to 10.4 points, compared to 26.6 in the previous release. The estimate stood at 21.3 points. The eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs remained in contraction territory, with readings below the 50-level. Still, both PMIs accelerated in January and beat their estimates. On the inflation front, January eurozone CPI came in at 1.4% and core CPI at 1.1%, confirming the initial releases.
The Federal Reserve minutes from the previous meeting reaffirmed that Fed policymakers are not planning to trim rates in the near future. The minutes highlighted the significant risk posed by the coronavirus outbreak, stating that “the threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching.” Policymakers also noted that the outbreak has dampened investor sentiment. This warning from the Fed underscores the threat that coronavirus poses to the global economy. There was some disappointing news on the manufacturing front, as manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, which indicates stagnation in the manufacturing sector. This was shy of the estimate of 51.5 points.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. The survey of 7,000 businesses showed a drop in sentiment among businesses in January: 95.9 points against 96.3 beforehand. The indicator is forecast to fall to 95.0 in February.
  2. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. The final release is projected to confirm that the German economy was stagnant in Q4, as the initial GDP reading came in at 0.0%. The final figures do not usually deviate from the initial readings.
  3. Eurozone Monetary Data: Thursday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply slowed down to an annual growth rate of 5.0% in December, short of the forecast of 5.5%. This was down sharply from the November reading of 5.0%. Private Loans grew by 3.7% y/y, up from 3.5% in November. We will now receive data for January. Money supply is projected to rebound to 5.3%, while private loans is expected to remain at 3.7%.
  4. German Preliminary CPI: Friday, All Day. Inflation levels remain low in the eurozone’s largest economy. The final release for January came in at -0.6%, matching the forecast. The initial reading for February is expected to rebound to 0.3%.
  5. French Preliminary GDP: Friday, 7:45. The second-largest economy in the eurozone contracted by 0.1% in Q4, according to the initial GDP reading. The second estimate is expected to confirm this figure.
  6. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 8:55. Unemployment rolls declined by 2 thousand in December, better than the estimate of a gain of 5 thousand. The estimate for January stands at 5 thousand.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1215, which has held since mid-January. 1.1119 is next.

1.1025 (mentioned last week) switched to a resistance role last week.

1.0925 is the next line of resistance.

1.0825 was tested in support last week. 1.0690 is next.

The round number of 1.0600 follows.

1.0520 is the final support level for now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The euro remains under pressure, and with confirmed cases of coronavirus in Italy and Germany, investor sentiment could head towards safe-haven assets. As well, the U.S. economy continues to outperform the eurozone.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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