EUR/USD Price Analysis: Positive Beyond 1.13, Awaits US Data, Fed

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Positive Beyond 1.13, Awaits US Data, Fed

  • The EUR/USD has been sidelined of late, consolidating around its recent top.
  • Despite Powell’s call for faster tapering, Omicron anxiety looms as the USD tracks firmer yields.
  • The ECB cites growth concerns to justify its easy-money policies after EUR inflation reaches a record high.
  • Employment Change from ADP, ISM PMI, and Powell’s testimony will be important, and German Retail Sales may be of interest also.

The EUR/USD price analysis gives a bullish scenario as the price managed to crack above the 1.1300 handle again after falling on Powell’s comments. The EUR/USD pair defends 1.1300 levels and reaches 1.1330s ahead of Wednesday’s European session.

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The major currency pair is looking for a clear direction as Fed Chairman Powell pulled back bond bears. However, looming concerns over the South African variant of the COVID virus and vaccine test have been waning ahead of key US dates/events.

During testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell stated: “It’s time to eliminate the term ‘temporary’ when describing inflation.” The Fed chief hinted that inflation could be more robust and pointed out that the December meeting needs to focus on faster cuts. After making his remarks, US Treasury bond yields moved from a two-month low to a four basis point (bps) high.

Nevertheless, ambiguous concerns over Omicron’s ability to neutralize the expected deadly virus variant voiced by giants like Moderna, Pfizer, and Oxford show their risk aversion. According to recent reports, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics’ antiviral pills for emergency use.

Moreover, cautious optimism in China and Australia further boosted the market’s warming reception in December, limiting the EUR/USD decline and challenging the bulls of the DXY.

Officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) have cited concerns about the resurgence of Coronavirus in the bloc’s economy, which requires a more expansive policy of easy money, even if supply restrictions cause reflation problems. Similarly, the consumer price index for the Eurozone followed its German counterpart and reached an all-time high of 4.6%.

In light of the recent market volatility, EUR / USD traders might look for some new momentum in Germany’s retail sales in October, forecast at -2.0% versus -0.9% in September. There will, however, be a focus on the second round of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks, the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, and the ADP change in employment. In addition, Omicron has been the focus of attention lately.

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EUR/USD price technical analysis: More gains on cards

eur/usd price analysis

The EUR/USD price remains buoyant above the 1.1300 mark. The pair remains well bid above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. Both SMAs are creating a bullish crossover, giving a hint of further gains. Yesterday’s highs of 1.1383 can be tested today ahead of the 1.1400 mark. On the flip side, 1.1300 is stiff support ahead of 1.1260 and 1.1200.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.