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  • EUR/USD is trading lower but calmly within the bearish channel.
  • The IFO German data is due on the day that is under focus.
  • The technical picture remains bearish to neutral.

On Friday, despite several important fundamental statistics on the Eurozone, the EUR/USD price did not go beyond the sideways channel. However, Euro buyers managed to protect the support at 1.1758, which is a good signal for forming an upward correction. In the morning forecast, we paid attention to the level of 1.1780 and was advised to open short positions from it when a false breakout was formed. The bears successfully defended the above level, which led to pressure on the Euro. However, we did not see a strong sell-off due to the fundamental data on the Eurozone.

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In the second half of the day, the bulls managed to form a false breakout in the support area of “‹”‹1.1758, which led to a signal to buy the Euro but failed to break above the middle of the day 1.1784 sideways channel.

On Monday, the focus should be on the IFO German Business Environment Indicator Report. The growth of this indicator is expected, which may lead to the strengthening of the European currency. However, all buyers’ tones will remain at the level of 1.1758, the lower band of the current sideways channel.

Therefore, only good data on the growth of conditions in the business environment, which should exceed the forecasts of economists and the next formation of a false breakdown at this level, form a signal to open long positions to restore EUR / USD to the middle of the 1.1784 sideways channel.

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EUR/USD price technical analysis:

The 4-hour chart shows that the price is wobbling inside the downtrend channel. The price is quite dull around the 20-period SMA. We can wait for a technical breakout of the channel to find clear directional bias. However, the overall stance is still bearish. Buyers are looking to recapture the 1.1800 zone, but sellers seem to dominate the market with a target of 1.1700.

EUR/USD price on 4-hour chart
EUR/USD price on 4-hour chart

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