EUR/USD Apr. 28 – Advancing Higher in a Post-Bernanke

EUR/USD continues higher, encouraged by good data from Germany and especially from Bernanke’s dovish press conference. Important figures are awaiting us in the US. Where will the rally stop?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Active session sees EUR/USD climb higher after Bernanke, and mark a fresh 16 month high of 1.4882.
• Current range –  1.48 – 1.5020

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.48, 1.47, 1.4650, 1.4580, 1.4520, 1.4450, 1.4375, 1.4282, 1.4160, 1.4030,
• Above:   1.5020, 1.5144, 1.5250, 1.55
• The path is open to reach the round number of 1.50, with resistance just above it at 1.5020. Post-crisis high of 1.5144 also in sight.
• 1.48 proved weak as resistance but it’s solid support.

Euro/Dollar at much higher ground  – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00  German Import Prices. Exp. +1%. Actual +1.1%.
• 6:45  French Consumer Spending. Exp. +0.3%. Actual -0.7%.
• 7:55  German Unemployment Change. Exp. -33K. Actual -37K. Good news.
• 12:30 US Q1  GDP. Exp. +1.9%. See EUR/USD GDP Preview here.
• 12:30 US  GDP Price Index. Exp. +2.2%.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 392K.
• 14:00 US  Pending Home Sales. Exp. +1.6%.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Bernanke declares QE2 Lite: The first ever press conference by the Fe yielded one important decision: Maturing assets will be reinvested – the central bank will continue being active, even if it won’t expand its balance sheet. This still means printing dollars, and it weakens the dollar across the board. In addition, inflation was dismissed.
• Merkel prepares public for Greek default: The Europe’s powerhouse begins  acknowledging there’s no option to avoid restructuring – she sent her senior aide to test this option. This happens as the Greek budget deficit soared above expectations, and there’s no one in the market to buy Greek paper.
• Tension in the Middle East: It seems that at least for now, the Syrian regime managed to restore stability. Fresh action is expected on Friday. The Egyptian gas pipeline leading gas to Israel and Jordan was sabotaged yesterday. This also contributes to higher oil prices and a weaker dollar.
• US Fiscal worries: It’s not Greece. It’s the US. The government is about to reach the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling on May 16th (according to recent calculations). The Republicans in Congress refuse to raise the debt ceiling if their demands aren’t met. The consequences could be a default of the US on its debt payment. The chances are very slim, but this talk is gaining traction and weakens the dollar. Needless to say, a default of the US will not only end the recovery but also send the whole world into turmoil.

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index shows that 73% of traders are short, a bit more than yesterday. According to this contrarian index, this shows more gains for EUR/USD.