EUR/USD Feb. 18 – Dipping Below Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD dipped below the uptrend channel as the G-20 meetings begin. Will we see a collapse, or is it a false break? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Made yet another attempt to conquer 1.3610 – it didn’t stay above.
• Current range – 1.35 – 1.3570

• Further levels in both directions: Below     1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above:  1.3570, 1.3610, 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself in recent days.
• The  failure  to conquer the critical 1.3760 is a bearish sign
• Uptrend channel is challenged – EUR/USD is now just below uptrend support, but it manages to hold above it, at least for now.

Euro/Dollar in channel – click on the graph to enlarge.

* Post updated 11:45 GMT.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 German PPI. Exp. +0.6%, Actual +1.2%. Euro-positive.
• 13:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks.
• 14:45 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• China raises the Reserve Ratio Rate. This is not the first time, but the 0.50% scale is rather large. This hurts the Euro
• G-20 meetings begin today. Statements released by the leaders will have an impact on currencies.
• Unrest in the Middle East helps the US dollar. The focus is on Bahrain and Libya at the moment – both big exporters of oil. Note that the oil pipelines in Egypt aren’t in full capacity as well.
• The departure of Axel Weber from the ECB continues to weigh on the Euro – now there’s a new candidate – Jens Weidmann, Chancellor Merkel’s aide.
• Irish debt is a big burden: There are growing talks of a default in Ireland. Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael,  wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a  default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government.
• A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.

Currensee Community: 63% are long , 37% are short. These are 1525 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.