EUR/USD continues to show very little activity, a trend which started late last week. The pair is trading slightly above the 1.38 line in Monday’s European session. US releases looked weak on Friday, as Core Durable Goods Orders posted its third consecutive decline, while UoM Consumer Sentiment slid to a ten-month low. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no releases out of the Eurozone. Today’s highlight is US Pending Home Sales.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
EUR/USD Technical
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD was steady, staying close to the 1.38 line. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3800 to 1.3870.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3800, 1.3710, 1.3650, 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3415, 1.3325 and 1.3240.
- Above: 1.3870, 1.3940, 1.4036, 1.41 and 1.4250.
- On the downside, 1.3800 is under strong pressure. 1.3710 is stronger.
- 1.3870 continues to provide strong resistance.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 78.1%.
- 13:15 US Industrial Production. Exp. 0.5%.
- 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Exp. 0.5%.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- US manufacturing, consumer confidence numbers disappoint: Last week ended on a sour note as key US releases disappointed the markets. Core Durable Goods Orders dropped -0.1%, way off the estimate of a 0.6% gain. This was the third straight decline for the indicator. Durable Goods Orders looked much better, posting a strong gain of 3.7%. UoM Consumer Sentiment was sluggish, dropping from 77.5 to 73.2 points, its worst showing in 2013. The estimate stood at 78.2 points. If we don’t see stronger releases this week, the euro could post further gains against the struggling dollar.
- US employment data raises concerns: US employment numbers did not impress last week. Unemployment Claims came in at 350 thousand, above the estimate of 343 thousand. This weak figure came on the heels of Non-Farm Payrolls, which slumped to a six-month low. The US unemployment rate dipped to 7.2%, a five-year low, but this does not point to increased employment, as the participation rate remained at 63.8%, its lowest level since 1978. These figures indicate that the US labor market continues to have difficulty creating new jobs. The weak readings are weighing on the US dollar, which finds itself at two-year lows against the euro.
- Euro PMIs miss their mark: On Thursday, PMIs across the Eurozone were a big disappointment. PMI numbers from Germany, France and the Eurozone all fell short of their estimates, and most posted a drop compared to the previous release. However, all except French Flash Manufacturing PMI remained above the 50 level, pointing to slight expansion. The latter has not been able to crack above the 50 barrier since January 2012, indicating ongoing contraction in the French manufacturing sector. The high-flying euro managed to brush aside the weak releases, but further weak data out of the Eurozone could hurt the continental currency.
- Fed unlikely to taper QE in 2013: The crisis mood in Washington has cleared for now, but the recent agreement hammered out in Congress provides short-term relief only, as it raises the debt ceiling until early February and funds the government until mid-January. The underlying budgetary issues remain unresolved, and in this muddy situation, the Fed is unlikely to push the taper trigger until early 2014. Last week’s disappointing employment numbers will add to the likelihood that QE tapering is off the table for now, and that means continued pressure on the US dollar.
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