EUR/USD is now slipping back down to the previous range, unable to hold on to the highs. Draghi did not provide a size for the ABS and did not really wave with QE and this initially helped the euro. However, the situation of the euro-zone isn’t that positive, and the gains are limited. The big event of the day is clearly the US Non-Farm Payrolls. Did the US job market rebound from the weak August?
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and sentiment moving the pair.
- Asian session: The pair could not hold above 1.27 and fell back down.
- Current range: 1.2660 to 1.27.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2620, 1.2570, 1.25, 1.2460 and 1.24.
- Above: 1.2660, 1.27, 1.2750 and 1.28.
- 1.2660 is strong resistance- where the now broken uptrend began.
- 1.2570 is the new low and becoming stronger.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 56.9 points.
- 7:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 49.6 points.
- 7:50 French Services PMI. Exp. 49.4 points.
- 7:55 German Services PMI. Exp. 55.4 points.
- 8:00 Final Services PMI. Exp. 52.8 points.
- 9:00 Euro-zone retail sales. Exp. +0.1%.
- 12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. 215K. See how to trade the Non-Farm Payrolls with EUR/USD.
- 12:30 US unemployment rate. Exp. 6.1%.
- 12:30 US participation rate. Exp. 62.8%.
- 12:30 US average hourly earnings. Exp. +0.2%, y/y 2.1%.
- 12:30 US trade balance exp. -41 billion.
- 13:45 US Markit Final Services PMI. Exp. 58.5 points.
- 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 58.5 points.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Draghi doesn’t rock the boat: Not only did the ECB refrain from action, but it also refrained from details. A timetable for the ABS was all we got, but with the absence of a size for the ABS and without a clear mention of QE, markets got the impression that Draghi is not ready to do more just yet and the euro reacted with a rise. However, not acting doesn’t mean resolving the situation, and the euro’s gains faded.
- Important NFP: After we had only 142K jobs gained in August, we are now looking for a rebound back to the previous 200K+ range, or at least a revision to last month’s disappointment. It is also important to note the participation rate and wage inflation, that disappointed in recent months. See how to trade the NFP with euro dollar. More: Did Bullard hint of an excellent NFP report?
- Rock bottom inflation: The ECB convenes as the level of inflation in the euro-zone is at rock bottom levels in both CPI, 0.3% and core CPI, 0.7%. They have never been this low together. The big question remains: will the low value of the euro be eventually reflected in higher inflation or is the situation even more dire?
- Mixed US data: Most data points this week have disappointed. Consumer confidence erased the gains, Chicago PMI dropped and the last straw was the ISM Manufacturing PMI. This already triggered a correction and the US dollar sold off. However, we are already beginning to see a correction. Jobless claims beat expectations hitting 287K and this is encouraging. The NFP will set the verdict.
In our latest podcast, we discuss the big events for October:
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